Kaiserslautern - Fachbereich Mathematik
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Faculty / Organisational entity
Diese Diplomarbeit gibt eine kurze Einführung in das Gebiet der Diffusionsprozesse (beschrieben als Lösungen stochastischer Differentialgleichungen) und der großen Abweichungen. Mit Methoden aus dem Gebiet der großen Abweichungen wird dann das asymptotische Verhalten des Bayesrisikos für die unterscheidung zweier Diffusionsprozesse untersucht.
Anhand des vom Gutachterausschuß der Stadt Kaiserlautern zur Verfügung gestellten Datenmaterials soll untersucht werden, welche Faktoren den Verkehrswert eines bebauten Grundstücks beeinflussen. Mit diesen Erkenntnissen soll eine möglichst einfache Formel ermittelt werden, die eine Schätzung für den Verkehrswert liefert, und die dabei die in der Vergangenheit erzielten Kaufpreise berücksichtigt. Für die Lösung dieser Aufgabe bietet sich das Verfahren der multiplen linearen Regression an. Auf die theoretischen Grundlagen soll hier nicht näher eingegangen werden, man findet sie in jedem Buch über mathematische Statistik, oder in [1]. Bei der Analyse der Daten wurde im großen und ganzen der Weg eingeschlagen, den Angelika Schwarz in [1] beschreibt. Ihre Ergebnisse lassen sich jedoch nicht direkt übertragen, da die dort betrachteten Grundstücke unbebaut waren. Da bei der statistischen Auswertung großer Datenmengen ein immenser Rechenaufwand anfällt, ist es unverzichtbar, professionelle statistische Software einzusetzen. Es stand das Programm S-Plus 2.0 (PC-Version für Windows) zur Verfügung. Sämtliche Berechnungen und alle Grafiken in diesem Bericht wurden in S-Plus erstellt.
We consider the problem to evacuate several regions due to river flooding, where sufficient time is given to plan ahead. To ensure a smooth evacuation procedure, our model includes the decision which regions to assign to which shelter, and when evacuation orders should be issued, such that roads do not become congested.
Due to uncertainty in weather forecast, several possible scenarios are simultaneously considered in a robust optimization framework. To solve the resulting integer program, we apply a Tabu search algorithm based on decomposing the problem into better tractable subproblems. Computational experiments on random instances and an instance based on Kulmbach, Germany, data show considerable improvement compared to an MIP solver provided with a strong starting solution.
Das zinsoptimierte Schuldenmanagement hat zum Ziel, eine möglichst effiziente Abwägung zwischen den erwarteten Finanzierungskosten einerseits und den Risiken für den Staatshaushalt andererseits zu finden. Um sich diesem Spannungsfeld zu nähern, schlagen wir erstmals die Brücke zwischen den Problemstellungen des Schuldenmanagements und den Methoden der zeitkontinuierlichen, dynamischen Portfoliooptimierung.
Das Schlüsselelement ist dabei eine neue Metrik zur Messung der Finanzierungskosten, die Perpetualkosten. Diese spiegeln die durchschnittlichen zukünftigen Finanzierungskosten wider und beinhalten sowohl die bereits bekannten Zinszahlungen als auch die noch unbekannten Kosten für notwendige Anschlussfinanzierungen. Daher repräsentiert die Volatilität der Perpetualkosten auch das Risiko einer bestimmten Strategie; je langfristiger eine Finanzierung ist, desto kleiner ist die Schwankungsbreite der Perpetualkosten.
Die Perpetualkosten ergeben sich als Produkt aus dem Barwert eines Schuldenportfolios und aus der vom Portfolio unabhängigen Perpetualrate. Für die Modellierung des Barwertes greifen wir auf das aus der dynamischen Portfoliooptimierung bekannte Konzept eines selbstfinanzierenden Bondportfolios zurück, das hier auf einem mehrdimensionalen affin-linearen Zinsmodell basiert. Das Wachstum des Schuldenportfolios wird dabei durch die Einbeziehung des Primärüberschusses des Staates gebremst bzw. verhindert, indem wir diesen als externen Zufluss in das selbstfinanzierende Modell aufnehmen.
Wegen der Vielfältigkeit möglicher Finanzierungsinstrumente wählen wir nicht deren Wertanteile als Kontrollvariable, sondern kontrollieren die Sensitivitäten des Portfolios gegenüber verschiedenen Zinsbewegungen. Aus optimalen Sensitivitäten können in einem nachgelagerten Schritt dann optimale Wertanteile für verschiedenste Finanzierungsinstrumente abgeleitet werden. Beispielhaft demonstrieren wir dies mittels Rolling-Horizon-Bonds unterschiedlicher Laufzeit.
Schließlich lösen wir zwei Optimierungsprobleme mit Methoden der stochastischen Kontrolltheorie. Dabei wird stets der erwartete Nutzen der Perpetualkosten maximiert. Die Nutzenfunktionen sind jeweils an das Schuldenmanagement angepasst und zeichnen sich insbesondere dadurch aus, dass höhere Kosten mit einem niedrigeren Nutzen einhergehen. Im ersten Problem betrachten wir eine Potenznutzenfunktion mit konstanter relativer Risikoaversion, im zweiten wählen wir eine Nutzenfunktion, welche die Einhaltung einer vorgegebenen Schulden- bzw. Kostenobergrenze garantiert.
Zeitreihen und Modalanalyse
(1987)
Die Arbeit ist zu verstehen als ein Teil im großen Projekt der Universität Kaiserslautern, das sich unter dem Namen Technomathematik um die dringend erforderliche Verständigung zwischen Technik und Mathematik bemüht.; Der große Leitfaden war das Buch von Natke: Einführung in Theorie und Praxis der Zeitreihen- und Modalanalyse, Schilderung der wesentlichen dort verwendeten Ideen der indirekten Systemidentifikation sowie des wahrscheinlichkeitstheoretischen und physikalisch-technischen Hintergrundes.
Yield Curves and Chance-Risk Classification: Modeling, Forecasting, and Pension Product Portfolios
(2021)
This dissertation consists of three independent parts: The yield curve shapes generated by interest rate models, the yield curve forecasting, and the application of the chance-risk classification to a portfolio of pension products. As a component of the capital market model, the yield curve influences the chance-risk classification which was introduced to improve the comparability of pension products and strengthen consumer protection. Consequently, all three topics have a major impact on this essential safeguard.
Firstly, we focus on the obtained yield curve shapes of the Vasicek interest rate models. We extend the existing studies on the attainable yield curve shapes in the one-factor Vasicek model by analysis of the curvature. Further, we show that the two-factor Vasicek model can explain significantly more effects that are observed at the market than its one-factor variant. Among them is the occurrence of dipped yield curves.
We further introduce a general change of measure framework for the Monte Carlo simulation of the Vasicek model under a subjective measure. This can be used to avoid the occurrence of a far too high frequency of inverse yield curves with growing time.
Secondly, we examine different time series models including machine learning algorithms forecasting the yield curve. For this, we consider statistical time series models such as autoregression and vector autoregression. Their performances are compared with the performance of a multilayer perceptron, a fully connected feed-forward neural network. For this purpose, we develop an extended approach for the hyperparameter optimization of the perceptron which is based on standard procedures like Grid and Random Search but allows to search a larger hyperparameter space. Our investigation shows that multilayer perceptrons outperform statistical models for long forecast horizons.
The third part deals with the chance-risk classification of state-subsidized pension products in Germany as well as its relevance for customer consulting. To optimize the use of the chance-risk classes assigned by Produktinformationsstelle Altersvorsorge gGmbH, we develop a procedure for determining the chance-risk class of different portfolios of state-subsidized pension products under the constraint that the portfolio chance-risk class does not exceed the customer's risk preference. For this, we consider a portfolio consisting of two new pension products as well as a second one containing a product already owned by the customer as well as the offer of a new one. This is of particular interest for customer consulting and can include other assets of the customer. We examine the properties of various chance and risk parameters as well as their corresponding mappings and show that a diversification effect exists. Based on the properties, we conclude that the average final contract values have to be used to obtain the upper bound of the portfolio chance-risk class. Furthermore, we develop an approach for determining the chance-risk class over the contract term since the chance-risk class is only assigned at the beginning of the accumulation phase. On the one hand, we apply the current legal situation, but on the other hand, we suggest an approach that requires further simulations. Finally, we translate our results into recommendations for customer consultation.
Gegenstand dieser Arbeit ist die Entwicklung eines Wärmetransportmodells für tiefe geothermische (hydrothermale) Reservoire. Existenz- und Eindeutigkeitsaussagen bezüglich einer schwachen Lösung des vorgestellten Modells werden getätigt. Weiterhin wird ein Verfahren zur Approximation dieser Lösung basierend auf einem linearen Galerkin-Schema dargelegt, wobei sowohl die Konvergenz nachgewiesen als auch eine Konvergenzrate erarbeitet werden.
Wreath product groups \(C_\ell \wr \mathfrak{S}_n\) have a rich combinatorial representation theory coming from the symmetric group case and involving partitions, Young tableaux, and Specht modules. To such a wreath product group \(W\), one can associate various algebras and geometric objects: Hecke algebras, quantum groups, Hilbert schemes, Calogero--Moser spaces, and (restricted) rational Cherednik algebras. Over the years, surprising connections have been made between a lot of these objects, with many of these connections having been traced back to combinatorial constructions and properties of the group \(W\) itself.
In this thesis, we have studied one of the algebras, namely the restricted rational Cherednik algebra \(\overline{\mathsf{H}}_\mathbf{c}(W)\), in order to find combinatorial models which describe certain representation theoretical phenomena around \(\overline{\mathsf{H}}_\mathbf{c}(W)\). In particular, we generalize a result by Gordon and describe the graded \(W\)-characters of the simple modules of \(\overline{\mathsf{H}}_\mathbf{c}(W)\) for generic parameter \(\mathbf{c}\) using Haiman's wreath Macdonald polynomials. These graded \(W\)-characters turn out to be specializations of Haiman's wreath Macdonald polynomials. In the non-generic parameter case, we use recent results by Maksimau to combinatorially express an inductive rule of \(\overline{\mathsf{H}}_\mathbf{c}(W)\)-modules first described by Bellamy. We use our results in type \(B\) to describe the (ungraded) \(B_n\)-character of simple \(\overline{\mathsf{H}}_\mathbf{c}(B_n)\)-modules associated to bipartitions with one empty part. Afterwards, we relate this combinatorial induction to various other algebras and families of \(W\)-characters found in the literature such as Lusztig's constructible characters, as well as detail some connections between generic and non-generic parameter using wreath Macdonald polynomials.
In this thesis we extend the worst-case modeling approach as first introduced by Hua and Wilmott (1997) (option pricing in discrete time) and Korn and Wilmott (2002) (portfolio optimization in continuous time) in various directions.
In the continuous-time worst-case portfolio optimization model (as first introduced by Korn and Wilmott (2002)), the financial market is assumed to be under the threat of a crash in the sense that the stock price may crash by an unknown fraction at an unknown time. It is assumed that only an upper bound on the size of the crash is known and that the investor prepares for the worst-possible crash scenario. That is, the investor aims to find the strategy maximizing her objective function in the worst-case crash scenario.
In the first part of this thesis, we consider the model of Korn and Wilmott (2002) in the presence of proportional transaction costs. First, we treat the problem without crashes and show that the value function is the unique viscosity solution of a dynamic programming equation (DPE) and then construct the optimal strategies. We then consider the problem in the presence of crash threats, derive the corresponding DPE and characterize the value function as the unique viscosity solution of this DPE.
In the last part, we consider the worst-case problem with a random number of crashes by proposing a regime switching model in which each state corresponds to a different crash regime. We interpret each of the crash-threatened regimes of the market as states in which a financial bubble has formed which may lead to a crash. In this model, we prove that the value function is a classical solution of a system of DPEs and derive the optimal strategies.
In 2002, Korn and Wilmott introduced the worst-case scenario optimal portfolio approach.
They extend a Black-Scholes type security market, to include the possibility of a
crash. For the modeling of the possible stock price crash they use a Knightian uncertainty
approach and thus make no probabilistic assumption on the crash size or the crash time distribution.
Based on an indifference argument they determine the optimal portfolio process
for an investor who wants to maximize the expected utility from final wealth. In this thesis,
the worst-case scenario approach is extended in various directions to enable the consideration
of stress scenarios, to include the possibility of asset defaults and to allow for parameter
uncertainty.
Insurance companies and banks regularly have to face stress tests performed by regulatory
instances. In the first part we model their investment decision problem that includes stress
scenarios. This leads to optimal portfolios that are already stress test prone by construction.
The solution to this portfolio problem uses the newly introduced concept of minimum constant
portfolio processes.
In the second part we formulate an extended worst-case portfolio approach, where asset
defaults can occur in addition to asset crashes. In our model, the strictly risk-averse investor
does not know which asset is affected by the worst-case scenario. We solve this problem by
introducing the so-called worst-case crash/default loss.
In the third part we set up a continuous time portfolio optimization problem that includes
the possibility of a crash scenario as well as parameter uncertainty. To do this, we combine
the worst-case scenario approach with a model ambiguity approach that is also based on
Knightian uncertainty. We solve this portfolio problem and consider two concrete examples
with box uncertainty and ellipsoidal drift ambiguity.
Aufgrund der vernetzten Strukturen und Wirkungszusammenhänge dynamischer Systeme werden die zugrundeliegenden mathematischen Modelle meist sehr komplex und erfordern ein hohes mathematisches Verständnis und Geschick. Bei Verwendung von spezieller Software können jedoch auch ohne tiefgehende mathematische oder informatorische Fachkenntnisse komplexe Wirkungsnetze dynamischer Systeme interaktiv erstellt werden. Als Beispiel wollen wir schrittweise das Modell einer Miniwelt entwerfen und Aussagen bezüglich ihrer Bevölkerungsentwicklung treffen.
Die Akustik liefert einen interessanten Hintergrund, interdisziplinären und fächerverbindenen Unterricht zwischen Mathematik, Physik und Musik durchzuführen. SchülerInnen können hierbei beispielsweise experimentell tätig sein, indem sie Audioaufnahmen selbst erzeugen und sich mit Computersoftware Frequenzspektren erzeugen lassen. Genauso können die Schüler auch Frequenzspektren vorgeben und daraus Klänge erzeugen. Dies kann beispielsweise dazu dienen, den Begriff der Obertöne im Musikunterricht physikalisch oder mathematisch greifbar zu machen oder in der Harmonielehre Frequenzverhältnisse von Intervallen und Dreiklängen näher zu untersuchen.
Der Computer ist hier ein sehr nützliches Hilfsmittel, da der mathematische Hintergrund dieser Aufgabe -- das Wechseln zwischen Audioaufnahme und ihrem Frequenzbild -- sich in der Fourier-Analysis findet, die für SchülerInnen äußerst anspruchsvoll ist. Indem man jedoch die Fouriertransformation als numerisches Hilfsmittel einführt, das nicht im Detail verstanden werden muss, lässt sich an anderer Stelle interessante Mathematik betreiben und die Zusammenhänge zwischen Akustik und Musik können spielerisch erfahren werden.
Im folgenden Beitrag wird eine Herangehensweise geschildert, wie wir sie bereits bei der Felix-Klein-Modellierungswoche umgesetzt haben: Die SchülerInnen haben den Auftrag erhalten, einen Synthesizer zu entwickeln, mit dem verschiedene Musikinstrumente nachgeahmt werden können. Als Hilfsmittel haben sie eine kurze Einführung in die Eigenschaften der Fouriertransformation erhalten, sowie Audioaufnahmen verschiedener Instrumente.
Using particle methods to solve the Boltzmann equation for rarefied gases numerically, in realistic streaming problems, huge differences in the total number of particles per cell arise. In order to overcome the resulting numerical difficulties the application of a weighted particle concept is well-suited. The underlying idea is to use different particle masses in different cells depending on the macroscopic density of the gas. Discrepance estimates and numerical results are given.
Weighted k-cardinality trees
(1992)
We consider the k -CARD TREE problem, i.e., the problem of finding in a given undirected graph G a subtree with k edges, having minimum weight. Applications of this problem arise in oil-field leasing and facility layout. While the general problem is shown to be strongly NP hard, it can be solved in polynomial time if G is itself a tree. We give an integer programming formulation of k-CARD TREE, and an efficient exact separation routine for a set of generalized subtour elimination constraints. The polyhedral structure of the convex huLl of the integer solutions is studied.
In an undirected graph G we associate costs and weights to each edge. The weight-constrained minimum spanning tree problem is to find a spanning tree of total edge weight at most a given value W and minimum total costs under this restriction. In this thesis a literature overview on this NP-hard problem, theoretical properties concerning the convex hull and the Lagrangian relaxation are given. We present also some in- and exclusion-test for this problem. We apply a ranking algorithm and the method of approximation through decomposition to our problem and design also a new branch and bound scheme. The numerical results show that this new solution approach performs better than the existing algorithms.
Given a finite set of points in the plane and a forbidden region R, we want to find a point X not an element of int(R), such that the weighted sum to all given points is minimized. This location problem is a variant of the well-known Weber Problem, where we measure the distance by polyhedral gauges and allow each of the weights to be positive or negative. The unit ball of a polyhedral gauge may be any convex polyhedron containing the origin. This large class of distance functions allows very general (practical) settings - such as asymmetry - to be modeled. Each given point is allowed to have its own gauge and the forbidden region R enables us to include negative information in the model. Additionally the use of negative and positive weights allows to include the level of attraction or dislikeness of a new facility. Polynomial algorithms and structural properties for this global optimization problem (d.c. objective function and a non-convex feasible set) based on combinatorial and geometrical methods are presented.
We introduce a class of models for time series of counts which include INGARCH-type models as well as log linear models for conditionally Poisson distributed data. For those processes, we formulate simple conditions for stationarity and weak dependence with a geometric rate. The coupling argument used in the proof serves as a role model for a similar treatment of integer-valued time series models based on other types of thinning operations.
By means of the limit and jump relations of classical potential theory the framework of a wavelet approach on a regular surface is established. The properties of a multiresolution analysis are verified, and a tree algorithm for fast computation is developed based on numerical integration. As applications of the wavelet approach some numerical examples are presented, including the zoom-in property as well as the detection of high frequency perturbations. At the end we discuss a fast multiscale representation of the solution of (exterior) Dirichlet's or Neumann's boundary-value problem corresponding to regular surfaces.