Kaiserslautern - Fachbereich Mathematik
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The aim of this thesis is to introduce an equilibrium insurance market model and study its properties and possible applications in risk class management.
First, an insurance market model based on an equilibrium approach is developed. Depending on the premium, the insured will choose the amount of coverage they buy in order to maximize their expected utility. The behavior of the insurer in different market regimes is then compared. While the premiums in markets with perfect competition are calculated in order to make no profit at all, insurers try to maximize their margins in a monopolistic market.
In markets modeled in this way several phenomena become evident. Perhaps the most important one is the so-called push-out effect. When customers with different attributes are insured together, insurance might become so expensive for one type of customers that those agents are better off with buying no insurance at all. The push-out effect was already shown for theoretical examples in the literature. We present a comprehensive analysis of the equilibrium insurance market model and the push-out effect for different insurance products such as life, health and disability insurance contracts using real-life data from different sources. In a concluding chapter we formulate indicators when a push-out can be expected and when not.
Machine learning regression approaches such as neural networks have gained vast popularity in recent years. The exponential growth of computing power has enabled larger and more evolved networks that can perform increasingly complex tasks. In our feasibility study about the use of neural networks in the regression of equilibrium insurance premiums it is shown that this regression is quite robust and the risk of overfitting can almost be excluded -- as long as the regression is performed on at least a few thousand data points.
Grouping customers of different risk types into contracts is important for the stability and the robustness of an insurance market. This motivates the study of the optimal assignment of risk classes into contracts, also known as rating classes. We provide a theoretical framework that makes use of techniques from different mathematical fields such as non-linear optimization, convex analysis, herding theory, game theory and combinatorics. In addition, we are able to show that the market specifications have a large impact on the optimal allocation of risk classes to contracts by the insurer. However, there does not need to be an optimal risk class assignment for each of these specifications.
To address this issue, we present two different approaches, one more theoretical and another that can easily be implemented in practice. An extension of our model to markets with capacity constraints rounds off the topic and extends the applicability of our approach.
In the first part of the thesis we develop the theory of standard bases in free modules over (localized) polynomial rings. Given that linear equations are solvable in the coefficients of the polynomials, we introduce an algorithm to compute standard bases with respect to arbitrary (module) monomial orderings. Moreover, we take special care to principal ideal rings, allowing zero divisors. For these rings we design modified algorithms which are new and much faster than the general ones. These algorithms were motivated by current limitations in formal verification of microelectronic System-on-Chip designs. We show that our novel approach using computational algebra is able to overcome these limitations in important classes of applications coming from industrial challenges.
The second part is based on research in collaboration with Jason Morton, Bernd Sturmfels and Anne Shiu. We devise a general method to describe and compute a certain class of rank tests motivated by statistics. The class of rank tests may loosely be described as being based on computing the number of linear extensions to given partial orders. In order to apply these tests to actual data we developed two algorithms and used our implementations to apply the methodology to gene expression data created at the Stowers Institute for Medical Research. The dataset is concerned with the development of the vertebra. Our rankings proved valuable to the biologists.