91G60 Numerical methods (including Monte Carlo methods)
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- Doctoral Thesis (2)
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This thesis deals with the simulation of large insurance portfolios. On the one hand, we need to model the contracts' development and the insured collective's structure and dynamics. On the other hand, an important task is the forward projection of the given balance sheet. Questions that are interesting in this context, such as the question of the default probability up to a certain time or the question of whether interest rate promises can be kept in the long term, cannot be answered analytically without strong simplifications. Reasons for this are high dependencies between the insurer's assets and liabilities, interactions between existing and new contracts due to claims on a collective reserve, potential policy features such as a guaranteed interest rate, and individual surrender options of the insured. As a consequence, we need numerical calculations, and especially the volatile financial markets require stochastic simulations. Despite the fact that advances in technology with increasing computing capacities allow for faster computations, a contract-specific simulation of all policies is often an impossible task. This is due to the size and heterogeneity of insurance portfolios, long time horizons, and the number of necessary Monte Carlo simulations. Instead, suitable approximation techniques are required.
In this thesis, we therefore develop compression methods, where the insured collective is grouped into cohorts based on selected contract-related criteria and then only an enormously reduced number of representative contracts needs to be simulated. We also show how to efficiently integrate new contracts into the existing insurance portfolio. Our grouping schemes are flexible, can be applied to any insurance portfolio, and maintain the existing structure of the insured collective. Furthermore, we investigate the efficiency of the compression methods and their quality in approximating the real life insurance portfolio.
For the simulation of the insurance business, we introduce a stochastic asset-liability management (ALM) model. Starting with an initial insurance portfolio, our aim is the forward projection of a given balance sheet structure. We investigate conditions for a long-term stability or stationarity corresponding to the idea of a solid and healthy insurance company. Furthermore, a main result is the proof that our model satisfies the fundamental balance sheet equation at the end of every period, which is in line with the principle of double-entry bookkeeping. We analyze several strategies for investing in the capital market and for financing the due obligations. Motivated by observed weaknesses, we develop new, more sophisticated strategies. In extensive simulation studies, we illustrate the short- and long-term behavior of our ALM model and show impacts of different business forms, the predicted new business, and possible capital market crashes on the profitability and stability of a life insurer.
This thesis deals with the application of binomial option pricing in a single-asset Black-Scholes market and its extension to multi-dimensional situations. Although the binomial approach is, in principle, an efficient method for lower dimensional valuation problems, there are at least two main problems regarding its application: Firstly, traded options often exhibit discontinuities, so that the Berry- Esséen inequality is in general tight; i.e. conventional tree methods converge no faster than with order 1/sqrt(N). Furthermore, they suffer from an irregular convergence behaviour that impedes the possibility to achieve a higher order of convergence via extrapolation methods. Secondly, in multi-asset markets conventional tree construction methods cannot ensure well-defined transition probabilities for arbitrary correlation structures between the assets. As a major aim of this thesis, we present two approaches to get binomial trees into shape in order to overcome the main problems in applications; the optimal drift model for the valuation of single-asset options and the decoupling approach to multi-dimensional option pricing. The new valuation methods are embedded into a self-contained survey of binomial option pricing, which focuses on the convergence behaviour of binomial trees. The optimal drift model is a new one-dimensional binomial scheme that can lead to convergence of order o(1/N) by exploiting the specific structure of the valuation problem under consideration. As a consequence, it has the potential to outperform benchmark algorithms. The decoupling approach is presented as a universal construction method for multi-dimensional trees. The corresponding trees are well-defined for an arbitrary correlation structure of the underlying assets. In addition, they yield a more regular convergence behaviour. In fact, the sawtooth effect can even vanish completely, so that extrapolation can be applied.