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- 2003 (1)
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- Preprint (1) (entfernen)
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- Englisch (1)
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Schlagworte
- conditional quantiles (1)
- kernel estimate (1)
- quantile autoregression (1)
- time series (1)
- uniform consistency (1)
- value-at-risk (1)
Fachbereich / Organisatorische Einheit
We consider the problem of estimating the conditional quantile of a time series at time t given observations of the same and perhaps other time series available at time t-1. We discuss an estimate which we get by inverting a kernel estimate of the conditional distribution function, and prove its asymptotic normality and uniform strong consistency. We illustrate the good performance of the estimate for light and heavy-tailed distributions of the innovations with a small simulation study.