Faeeza Mackay

• Coastal port-industrial areas are becoming increasingly significant due to urban shrinkage, population decline, and climate change. To address social and economic issues and enhance climate resilience, it is crucial to anticipate urban shrinkage in both stable and growing coastal areas that are undergoing economic transformation. Urban planning can better understand the dynamics of planning for urban shrinkage and climate resilience, as port-industrial areas have a large economic impact on nearby coastal communities. This dissertation examines the long-term implications of urban shrinkage in coastal port-industrial areas in the context of climate change and sea level rise in England. The research problem is that current urban policy does not adequately address the challenges of urban shrinkage and climate resilience in these areas. The research questions are: What are the population changes in local areas in England? What effect does population decline have on changing urbanisation patterns in older industrial areas? What type of adaptation efforts were made in North East Lincolnshire, England, and Bremerhaven, Germany, in response to the 2013 tidal surge, and how did this affect urban shrinkage? The dissertation applies an integrated concept of Shrinkage-Resilience as a framework for analysis. The methodology includes a review of existing models and frameworks, as well as case studies of international and local contexts. The findings suggest that between 2013-2019, 68% of older industrial areas (including coastal ports) in England are undergoing changing urbanisation patterns relative to population, land use, and green belt areas, and are key areas for urban policy, such as the Levelling Up agenda. One of the areas, North East Lincolnshire is discussed and compared to Bremerhaven. These examples demonstrate the link between Shrinkage-Resilience approaches and their practical implementation in coastal port-industrial areas affected by urban shrinkage. This research advances the scientific practice of urban planning and policy-making for shrinking cities by introducing the approach of Shrinkage-Resilience, which emphasises the importance of considering long-term social, economic, and environmental impacts in urban shrinkage contexts. This approach is crucial in the transition to a more sustainable and inclusive society, where the welfare of present and future generations, the environment, and economic development are taken into account. The dissertation provides recommendations for urban planning to incorporate policy changes for shrinking cities and coastal port-industrial areas worldwide, to include disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation approaches.