## Doctoral Thesis

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The central theme in this thesis concerns the development of enhanced methods and algorithms for appraising market and credit risks and their application within the context of standard and more advanced market models. Generally, methods and algorithms for analysing market risk of complex portfolios involve detailed knowledge of option sensitivities, the so-called "Greeks". Based on an analysis of symmetries in financial market models, relations between option sensitivities are obtained, which can be used for the efficient valuation of the Greeks. Mainly, the relations are derived within the Black Scholes model, however, some relations are also valid for more general models, for instance the Heston model. Portfolios are usually influenced by lots of underlyings, so it is necessary to characterise the dependencies of these basic instruments. It is usual to describe such dependencies by correlation matrices. However, estimations of correlation matrices in practice are disturbed by statistical noise and usually have the problem of rank deficiency due to missing data. A fast algorithm is presented which performs a generalized Cholesky decomposition of a perturbed correlation matrix. In contrast to the standard Cholesky algorithm, an advantage of the generalized method is that it works for semi-positive, rank deficient matrices as well. Moreover, it gives an approximative decomposition when the input matrix is indefinite. A comparison with known algorithms with similar features is performed and it turns out, that the new algorithm can be recommended in situations where computation time is the critical issue. The determination of a profit and loss distribution by Fourier inversion of its characteristic function is a powerful tool, but it can break down when the characteristic function is not integrable. In this thesis, methods for Fourier inversion of non-integrable characteristic functions are studied. In this respect, two theorems are obtained which are based on a suitable approximation of the unknown distribution with known density and characteristic function. Further it will be shown, that straightforward Fast Fourier inversion works, when the according density lives on a bounded interval. The above techniques are of crucial importance to determine the profit and loss distribution (P&L) of large portfolios efficiently. The so-called Delta Gamma normal approach has become industrial standard for the estimation of market risk. It is shown, that the performance of the Delta Gamma normal approach can be improved substantially by application of the developed methods. The same optimization procedure also applies to the Delta Gamma Student model. A standard tool for computing the P&L distribution of a loan portfolio is the CreditRisk+ model. Basically, the CreditRisk+ distribution is a discrete distribution which can be computed from its probability generating function. For this a numerically stable method is presented and as an alternative, a new algorithm based on Fourier inversion is proposed. Finally, an extension of the CreditRisk+ model to market risk is developed, which distribution can be obtained efficiently by the presented Fourier inversion methods as well.

The new international capital standard for credit institutions (“Basel II”) allows banks to use internal rating systems in order to determine the risk weights that are relevant for the calculation of capital charge. Therefore, it is necessary to develop a system that enfolds the main practices and methods existing in the context of credit rating. The aim of this thesis is to give a suggestion of setting up a credit rating system, where the main techniques used in practice are analyzed, presenting some alternatives and considering the problems that can arise from a statistical point of view. Finally, we will set up some guidelines on how to accomplish the challenge of credit scoring. The judgement of the quality of a credit with respect to the probability of default is called credit rating. A method based on a multi-dimensional criterion seems to be natural, due to the numerous effects that can influence this rating. However, owing to governmental rules, the tendency is that typically one-dimensional criteria will be required in the future as a measure for the credit worthiness or for the quality of a credit. The problem as described above can be resolved via transformation of a multi-dimensional data set into a one-dimensional one while keeping some monotonicity properties and also keeping the loss of information (due to the loss of dimensionality) at a minimum level.