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- Fachbereich Mathematik (43) (remove)

Das zinsoptimierte Schuldenmanagement hat zum Ziel, eine möglichst effiziente Abwägung zwischen den erwarteten Finanzierungskosten einerseits und den Risiken für den Staatshaushalt andererseits zu finden. Um sich diesem Spannungsfeld zu nähern, schlagen wir erstmals die Brücke zwischen den Problemstellungen des Schuldenmanagements und den Methoden der zeitkontinuierlichen, dynamischen Portfoliooptimierung.
Das Schlüsselelement ist dabei eine neue Metrik zur Messung der Finanzierungskosten, die Perpetualkosten. Diese spiegeln die durchschnittlichen zukünftigen Finanzierungskosten wider und beinhalten sowohl die bereits bekannten Zinszahlungen als auch die noch unbekannten Kosten für notwendige Anschlussfinanzierungen. Daher repräsentiert die Volatilität der Perpetualkosten auch das Risiko einer bestimmten Strategie; je langfristiger eine Finanzierung ist, desto kleiner ist die Schwankungsbreite der Perpetualkosten.
Die Perpetualkosten ergeben sich als Produkt aus dem Barwert eines Schuldenportfolios und aus der vom Portfolio unabhängigen Perpetualrate. Für die Modellierung des Barwertes greifen wir auf das aus der dynamischen Portfoliooptimierung bekannte Konzept eines selbstfinanzierenden Bondportfolios zurück, das hier auf einem mehrdimensionalen affin-linearen Zinsmodell basiert. Das Wachstum des Schuldenportfolios wird dabei durch die Einbeziehung des Primärüberschusses des Staates gebremst bzw. verhindert, indem wir diesen als externen Zufluss in das selbstfinanzierende Modell aufnehmen.
Wegen der Vielfältigkeit möglicher Finanzierungsinstrumente wählen wir nicht deren Wertanteile als Kontrollvariable, sondern kontrollieren die Sensitivitäten des Portfolios gegenüber verschiedenen Zinsbewegungen. Aus optimalen Sensitivitäten können in einem nachgelagerten Schritt dann optimale Wertanteile für verschiedenste Finanzierungsinstrumente abgeleitet werden. Beispielhaft demonstrieren wir dies mittels Rolling-Horizon-Bonds unterschiedlicher Laufzeit.
Schließlich lösen wir zwei Optimierungsprobleme mit Methoden der stochastischen Kontrolltheorie. Dabei wird stets der erwartete Nutzen der Perpetualkosten maximiert. Die Nutzenfunktionen sind jeweils an das Schuldenmanagement angepasst und zeichnen sich insbesondere dadurch aus, dass höhere Kosten mit einem niedrigeren Nutzen einhergehen. Im ersten Problem betrachten wir eine Potenznutzenfunktion mit konstanter relativer Risikoaversion, im zweiten wählen wir eine Nutzenfunktion, welche die Einhaltung einer vorgegebenen Schulden- bzw. Kostenobergrenze garantiert.

Monte Carlo simulation is one of the commonly used methods for risk estimation on financial markets, especially for option portfolios, where any analytical approximation is usually too inaccurate. However, the usually high computational effort for complex portfolios with a large number of underlying assets motivates the application of variance reduction procedures. Variance reduction for estimating the probability of high portfolio losses has been extensively studied by Glasserman et al. A great variance reduction is achieved by applying an exponential twisting importance sampling algorithm together with stratification. The popular and much faster Delta-Gamma approximation replaces the portfolio loss function in order to guide the choice of the importance sampling density and it plays the role of the stratification variable. The main disadvantage of the proposed algorithm is that it is derived only in the case of Gaussian and some heavy-tailed changes in risk factors.
Hence, our main goal is to keep the main advantage of the Monte Carlo simulation, namely its ability to perform a simulation under alternative assumptions on the distribution of the changes in risk factors, also in the variance reduction algorithms. Step by step, we construct new variance reduction techniques for estimating the probability of high portfolio losses. They are based on the idea of the Cross-Entropy importance sampling procedure. More precisely, the importance sampling density is chosen as the closest one to the optimal importance sampling density (zero variance estimator) out of some parametric family of densities with respect to Kullback - Leibler cross-entropy. Our algorithms are based on the special choices of the parametric family and can now use any approximation of the portfolio loss function. A special stratification is developed, so that any approximation of the portfolio loss function under any assumption of the distribution of the risk factors can be used. The constructed algorithms can easily be applied for any distribution of risk factors, no matter if light- or heavy-tailed. The numerical study exhibits a greater variance reduction than of the algorithm from Glasserman et al. The use of a better approximation may improve the performance of our algorithms significantly, as it is shown in the numerical study.
The literature on the estimation of the popular market risk measures, namely VaR and CVaR, often refers to the algorithms for estimating the probability of high portfolio losses, describing the corresponding transition process only briefly. Hence, we give a consecutive discussion of this problem. Results necessary to construct confidence intervals for both measures under the mentioned variance reduction procedures are also given.

Due to the increasing number of natural or man-made disasters, the application of operations research methods in evacuation planning has seen a rising interest in the research community. From the beginning, evacuation planning has been highly focused on car-based evacuation. Recently, also the evacuation of transit depended evacuees with the help of buses has been considered.
In this case study, we apply two such models and solution algorithms to evacuate a core part of the metropolitan capital city Kathmandu of Nepal as a hypothetical endangered region, where a large part of population is transit dependent. We discuss the computational results for evacuation time under a broad range of possible scenarios, and derive planning suggestions for practitioners.

In automotive testrigs we apply load time series to components such that the outcome is as close as possible to some reference data. The testing procedure should in general be less expensive and at the same time take less time for testing. In my thesis, I propose a testrig damage optimization problem (WSDP). This approach improves upon the testrig stress optimization problem (TSOP) used as a state of the art by industry experts.
In both (TSOP) and (WSDP), we optimize the load time series for a given testrig configuration. As the name suggests, in (TSOP) the reference data is the stress time series. The detailed behaviour of the stresses as functions of time are sometimes not the most important topic. Instead the damage potential of the stress signals are considered. Since damage is not part of the objectives in the (TSOP) the total damage computed from the optimized load time series is not optimal with respect to the reference damage. Additionally, the load time series obtained is as long as the reference stress time series and the total damage computation needs cycle counting algorithms and Goodmann corrections. The use of cycle counting algorithms makes the computation of damage from load time series non-differentiable.
To overcome the issues discussed in the previous paragraph this thesis uses block loads for the load time series. Using of block loads makes the damage differentiable with respect to the load time series. Additionally, in some special cases it is shown that damage is convex when block loads are used and no cycle counting algorithms are required. Using load time series with block loads enables us to use damage in the objective function of the (WSDP).
During every iteration of the (WSDP), we have to find the maximum total damage over all plane angles. The first attempt at solving the (WSDP) uses discretization of the interval for plane angle to find the maximum total damage at each iteration. This is shown to give unreliable results and makes maximum total damage function non-differentiable with respect to the plane angle. To overcome this, damage function for a given surface stress tensor due to a block load is remodelled by Gaussian functions. The parameters for the new model are derived.
When we model the damage by Gaussian function, the total damage is computed as a sum of Gaussian functions. The plane with the maximum damage is similar to the modes of the Gaussian Mixture Models (GMM), the difference being that the Gaussian functions used in GMM are probability density functions which is not the case in the damage approximation presented in this work. We derive conditions for a single maximum for Gaussian functions, similar to the ones given for the unimodality of GMM by Aprausheva et al. in [1].
By using the conditions for a single maximum we give a clustering algorithm that merges the Gaussian functions in the sum as clusters. Each cluster obtained through clustering is such that it has a single maximum in the absence of other Gaussian functions of the sum. The approximate point of the maximum of each cluster is used as the starting point for a fixed point equation on the original damage function to get the actual maximum total damage at each iteration.
We implement the method for the (TSOP) and the two methods (with discretization and with clustering) for (WSDP) on two example problems. The results obtained from the (WSDP) using discretization is shown to be better than the results obtained from the (TSOP). Furthermore we show that, (WSDP) using clustering approach to finding the maximum total damage, takes less number of iterations and is more reliable than using discretization.

The sink location problem is a combination of network flow and location problems: From a given set of nodes in a flow network a minimum cost subset \(W\) has to be selected such that given supplies can be transported to the nodes in \(W\). In contrast to its counterpart, the source location problem which has already been studied in the literature, sinks have, in general, a limited capacity. Sink location has a decisive application in evacuation planning, where the supplies correspond to the number of evacuees and the sinks to emergency shelters.
We classify sink location problems according to capacities on shelter nodes, simultaneous or non-simultaneous flows, and single or multiple assignments of evacuee groups to shelters. Resulting combinations are interpreted in the evacuation context and analyzed with respect to their worst-case complexity status.
There are several approaches to tackle these problems: Generic solution methods for uncapacitated problems are based on source location and modifications of the network. In the capacitated case, for which source location cannot be applied, we suggest alternative approaches which work in the original network. It turns out that latter class algorithms are superior to the former ones. This is established in numerical tests including random data as well as real world data from the city of Kaiserslautern, Germany.

Geometric Programming is a useful tool with a wide range of applications in engineering. As in real-world problems input data is likely to be affected by uncertainty, Hsiung, Kim, and Boyd introduced robust geometric programming to include the uncertainty in the optimization process. They also developed a tractable approximation method to tackle this problem. Further, they pose the question whether there exists a tractable reformulation of their robust geometric programming model instead of only an approximation method. We give a negative answer to this question by showing that robust geometric programming is co-NP hard in its natural posynomial form.

We consider a network flow problem, where the outgoing flow is reduced by a certain percentage in each node. Given a maximum amount of flow that can leave the source node, the aim is to find a solution that maximizes the amount of flow which arrives at the sink.
Starting from this basic model, we include two new, additional aspects: On the one hand, we are able to reduce the loss at some of the nodes; on the other hand, the exact loss values are not known, but may come from a discrete uncertainty set of exponential size.
Applications for problems of this type can be found in evacuation planning, where one would like to improve the safety of nodes such that the number of evacuees reaching safety is maximized.
We formulate the resulting robust flow problem with losses and improvability as a mixed-integer program for finitely many scenarios, and present an iterative scenario-generation procedure that avoids the inclusion of all scenarios from the beginning. In a computational study using both randomly generated instance and realistic data based on the city of Nice, France, we compare our solution algorithms.

Die Dissertation "Portfoliooptimierung im Binomialmodell" befasst sich mit der Frage, inwieweit
das Problem der optimalen Portfolioauswahl im Binomialmodell lösbar ist bzw. inwieweit
die Ergebnisse auf das stetige Modell übertragbar sind. Dabei werden neben dem
klassischen Modell ohne Kosten und ohne Veränderung der Marktsituation auch Modellerweiterungen
untersucht.

Pedestrian Flow Models
(2014)

There have been many crowd disasters because of poor planning of the events. Pedestrian models are useful in analysing the behavior of pedestrians in advance to the events so that no pedestrians will be harmed during the event. This thesis deals with pedestrian flow models on microscopic, hydrodynamic and scalar scales. By following the Hughes' approach, who describes the crowd as a thinking fluid, we use the solution of the Eikonal equation to compute the optimal path for pedestrians. We start with the microscopic model for pedestrian flow and then derive the hydrodynamic and scalar models from it. We use particle methods to solve the governing equations. Moreover, we have coupled a mesh free particle method to the fixed grid for solving the Eikonal equation. We consider an example with a large number of pedestrians to investigate our models for different settings of obstacles and for different parameters. We also consider the pedestrian flow in a straight corridor and through T-junction and compare our numerical results with the experiments. A part of this work is devoted for finding a mesh free method to solve the Eikonal equation. Most of the available methods to solve the Eikonal equation are restricted to either cartesian grid or triangulated grid. In this context, we propose a mesh free method to solve the Eikonal equation, which can be applicable to any arbitrary grid and useful for the complex geometries.

We argue that the concepts of resilience in engineering science and robustness in mathematical optimization are strongly related. Using evacuation planning as an example application, we demonstrate optimization techniques to improve solution resilience. These include a direct modelling of the uncertainty for stochastic or robust optimization, as well as taking multiple objective functions into account.

We consider an uncertain traveling salesman problem, where distances between nodes are not known exactly, but may stem from an uncertainty set of possible scenarios. This uncertainty set is given as intervals with an additional bound on the number of distances that may deviate from their expected, nominal value.
A recoverable robust model is proposed, that allows a tour to change a bounded number of edges once a scenario becomes known. As the model contains an exponential number of constraints and variables, an iterative algorithm is proposed, in which tours and scenarios are computed alternately.
While this approach is able to find a provably optimal solution to the robust model, it also needs to solve increasingly complex subproblems. Therefore, we also consider heuristic solution procedures based on local search moves using a heuristic estimate of the actual objective function. In computational experiments, these approaches are compared.
Finally, an alternative recovery model is discussed, where a second-stage recovery tour is not required to visit all nodes of the graph. We show that the previously NP-hard evaluation of a fixed solution now becomes solvable in polynomial time.

In 2006 Jeffrey Achter proved that the distribution of divisor class groups of degree 0 of function fields with a fixed genus and the distribution of eigenspaces in symplectic similitude groups are closely related to each other. Gunter Malle proposed that there should be a similar correspondence between the distribution of class groups of number fields and the distribution of eigenspaces in ceratin matrix groups. Motivated by these results and suggestions we study the distribution of eigenspaces corresponding to the eigenvalue one in some special subgroups of the general linear group over factor rings of rings of integers of number fields and derive some conjectural statements about the distribution of \(p\)-parts of class groups of number fields over a base field \(K_{0}\). Where our main interest lies in the case that \(K_{0}\) contains the \(p\)th roots of unity, because in this situation the \(p\)-parts of class groups seem to behave in an other way like predicted by the popular conjectures of Henri Cohen and Jacques Martinet. In 2010 based on computational data Malle has succeeded in formulating a conjecture in the spirit of Cohen and Martinet for this case. Here using our investigations about the distribution in matrixgroups we generalize the conjecture of Malle to a more abstract level and establish a theoretical backup for these statements.

In this paper we propose a procedure to extend classical numerical schemes for
hyperbolic conservation laws to networks of hyperbolic conservation laws. At the
junctions of the network we solve the given coupling conditions and minimize the
contributions of the outgoing numerical waves. This flexible procedure allows
us to also use central schemes at the junctions. Several numerical examples are
considered to investigate the performance of this new approach compared to the
common Godunov solver and exact solutions.

In this paper we present a method for nonlinear frequency response analysis of mechanical vibrations of 3-dimensional solid structures.
For computing nonlinear frequency response to periodic excitations, we employ the well-established harmonic balance method.
A fundamental aspect for allowing a large-scale application of the method is model order reduction of the discretized equation of motion. Therefore we propose the utilization of a modal projection method enhanced with modal derivatives, providing second-order information.
For an efficient spatial discretization of continuum mechanics nonlinear partial differential equations, including large deformations and hyperelastic material laws, we use the isogeometric finite element method, which has already been shown to possess advantages over classical finite element discretizations in terms of higher accuracy of numerical approximations in the fields of linear vibration and static large deformation analysis.
With several computational examples, we demonstrate the applicability and accuracy of the modal derivative reduction method for nonlinear static computations and vibration analysis.
Thus, the presented method opens a promising perspective on application of nonlinear frequency analysis to large-scale industrial problems.

This thesis focuses on dealing with some new aspects of continuous time portfolio optimization by using the stochastic control method.
First, we extend the Busch-Korn-Seifried model for a large investor by using the Vasicek model for the short rate, and that problem is solved explicitly for two types of intensity functions.
Next, we justify the existence of the constant proportion portfolio insurance (CPPI) strategy in a framework containing a stochastic short rate and a Markov switching parameter. The effect of Vasicek short rate on the CPPI strategy has been studied by Horsky (2012). This part of the thesis extends his research by including a Markov switching parameter, and the generalization is based on the B\"{a}uerle-Rieder investment problem. The explicit solutions are obtained for the portfolio problem without the Money Market Account as well as the portfolio problem with the Money Market Account.
Finally, we apply the method used in Busch-Korn-Seifried investment problem to explicitly solve the portfolio optimization with a stochastic benchmark.

Multilevel Constructions
(2014)

The thesis consists of the two chapters.
The first chapter is addressed to make a deep investigation of the MLMC method. In particular we take an optimisation view at the estimate. Rather than fixing the number of discretisation points \(n_i\) to be a geometric sequence, we are trying to find an optimal set up for \(n_i\) such that for a fixed error the estimate can be computed within a minimal time.
In the second chapter we propose to enhance the MLMC estimate with the weak extrapolation technique. This technique helps to improve order of a weak convergence of a scheme and as a result reduce CC of an estimate. In particular we study high order weak extrapolation approach, which is know not be inefficient in the standard settings. However, a combination of the MLMC and the weak extrapolation yields an improvement of the MLMC.

A large class of estimators including maximum likelihood, least squares and M-estimators are based on estimating functions. In sequential change point detection related monitoring functions can be used to monitor new incoming observations based on an initial estimator, which is computationally efficient because possible numeric optimization is restricted to the initial estimation. In this work, we give general regularity conditions under which we derive the asymptotic null behavior of the corresponding tests in addition to their behavior under alternatives, where conditions become particularly simple for sufficiently smooth estimating and monitoring functions. These regularity conditions unify and even extend a large amount of existing procedures in the literature, while they also allow us to derive monitoring schemes in time series that have not yet been considered in the literature including non-linear autoregressive time series and certain count time series such as binary or Poisson autoregressive models. We do not assume that the estimating and monitoring function are equal or even of the same dimension, allowing for example to combine a non-robust but more precise initial estimator with a robust monitoring scheme. Some simulations and data examples illustrate the usefulness of the described procedures.

This thesis is devoted to the computational aspects of intersection theory and enumerative geometry. The first results are a Sage package Schubert3 and a Singular library schubert.lib which both provide the key functionality necessary for computations in intersection theory and enumerative geometry. In particular, we describe an alternative method for computations in Schubert calculus via equivariant intersection theory. More concretely, we propose an explicit formula for computing the degree of Fano schemes of linear subspaces on hypersurfaces. As a special case, we also obtain an explicit formula for computing the number of linear subspaces on a general hypersurface when this number is finite. This leads to a much better performance than classical Schubert calculus.
Another result of this thesis is related to the computation of Gromov-Witten invariants. The most powerful method for computing Gromov-Witten invariants is the localization of moduli spaces of stable maps. This method was introduced by Kontsevich in 1995. It allows us to compute Gromov-Witten invariants via Bott's formula. As an insightful application, we computed the numbers of rational curves on general complete intersection Calabi-Yau threefolds in projective spaces up to degree six. The results are all in agreement with predictions made from mirror symmetry.

The hypervolume subset selection problem consists of finding a subset, with a given cardinality \(k\), of a set of nondominated points that maximizes the hypervolume indicator. This problem arises in selection procedures of evolutionary algorithms for multiobjective optimization, for which practically efficient algorithms are required. In this article, two new formulations are provided for the two-dimensional variant of this problem.
The first is a (linear) integer programming formulation that can be solved by solving its linear programming relaxation. The second formulation is a \(k\)-link shortest path formulation on a special digraph with the Monge property that can be solved by dynamic programming in \(\mathcal{O}(n(k + \log n))\) time. This improves upon the \(\mathcal{O}(n^2k)\) result of Bader (2009), and matches the recent result of Bringmann et al. (2014), which was developed independently from this work using different techniques. Moreover, it is shown that these bounds may be further improved under mild conditions on \(k\).

The hypervolume subset selection problem consists of finding a subset, with a given cardinality, of a nondominated set of points that maximizes the hypervolume indicator. This problem arises in selection procedures of population-based heuristics for multiobjective optimization, and for which practically efficient algorithms are strongly required. In this article, we provide two new formulations for the two-dimensional variant of this problem.
The first is an integer programming formulation that can be solved by solving its linear relaxation. The second formulation is a \(k\)-link shortest path formulation on a special digraph with Monge property that can be solved by dynamic programming in \(\mathcal{O}(n^2)\) time complexity. This improves upon the existing result of \(O(n^3)\) in Bader.