## Doctoral Thesis

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- Fachbereich Mathematik (16) (remove)

In many industrial applications fast and accurate solutions of linear elliptic partial differential equations are needed as one of the building blocks of more complex problems. The domains are often highly complex and meshing turns out to be expensive and difficult to obtain with a sufficient quality. In such cases methods with a regular, not boundary adapted grid offer an attractive alternative. The Explicit Jump Immersed Interface Method is one of these algorithms. The main interest of this work lies in solving the linear elasticity equations. For this purpose the existing EJIIM algorithm has been extended to three dimensions. The Poisson equation is always considered in parallel as the most typical representative of elliptic PDEs. During the work it became clear that EJIIM can have very high computational memory requirements. To overcome this problem an improvement, Reduced EJIIM is proposed. The main theoretical result in this work is the proof of the smoothing property of inverses of elliptic finite difference operators in two and three space dimensions. It is an often observed phenomena that the local truncation error is allowed to be of lower order along some lower dimensional manifold without influencing the global convergence order of the solution.

We work in the setting of time series of financial returns. Our starting point are the GARCH models, which are very common in practice. We introduce the possibility of having crashes in such GARCH models. A crash will be modeled by drawing innovations from a distribution with much mass on extremely negative events, while in ''normal'' times the innovations will be drawn from a normal distribution. The probability of a crash is modeled to be time dependent, depending on the past of the observed time series and/or exogenous variables. The aim is a splitting of risk into ''normal'' risk coming mainly from the GARCH dynamic and extreme event risk coming from the modeled crashes. We will present several incarnations of this modeling idea and give some basic properties like the conditional first and second moments. For the special case that we just have an ARCH dynamic we can establish geometric ergodicity and, thus, stationarity and mixing conditions. Also in the ARCH case we formulate (quasi) maximum likelihood estimators and can derive conditions for consistency and asymptotic normality of the parameter estimates. In a special case of genuine GARCH dynamic we are able to establish L_1-approximability and hence laws of large numbers for the processes itself. We can formulate a conditional maximum likelihood estimator in this case, but cannot completely establish consistency for them. On the practical side we look for the outcome of estimating models with genuine GARCH dynamic and compare the result to classical GARCH models. We apply the models to Value at Risk estimation and see that in comparison to the classical models many of ours seem to work better although we chose the crash distributions quite heuristically.

In this dissertation a model of melt spinning (by Doufas, McHugh and Miller) has been investigated. The model (DMM model) which takes into account effects of inertia, air drag, gravity and surface tension in the momentum equation and heat exchange between air and fibre surface, viscous dissipation and crystallization in the energy equation also has a complicated coupling with the microstructure. The model has two parts, before onset of crystallization (BOC) and after onset of crystallization (AOC) with the point of onset of crystallization as the unknown interface. Mathematically the model has been formulated as a Free boundary value problem. Changes have been introduced in the model with respect to the air drag and an interface condition at the free boundary. The mathematical analysis of the nonlinear, coupled free boundary value problem shows that the solution of this problem depends heavily on initial conditions and parameters which renders the global analysis impossible. But by defining a physically acceptable solution, it is shown that for a more restricted set of initial conditions if a unique solution exists for IVP BOC then it is physically acceptable. For this the important property of the positivity of the conformation tensor variables has been proved. Further it is shown that if a physically acceptable solution exists for IVP BOC then under certain conditions it also exists for IVP AOC. This gives an important relation between the initial conditions of IVP BOC and the existence of a physically acceptable solution of IVP AOC. A new investigation has been done for the melt spinning process in the framework of classical mechanics. A Hamiltonian formulation has been done for the melt spinning process for which appropriate Poisson brackets have been derived for the 1-d, elongational flow of a viscoelastic fluid. From the Hamiltonian, cross sectionally averaged balance mass and momentum equations of melt spinning can be derived along with the microstructural equations. These studies show that the complicated problem of melt spinning can also be studied under the framework of classical mechanics. This work provides the basic groundwork on which further investigations on the dynamics of a fibre could be carried out. The Free boundary value problem has been solved numerically using shooting method. Matlab routines have been used to solve the IVPs arising in the problem. Some numerical case studies have been done to study the sensitivity of the ODE systems with respect to the initial guess and parameters. These experiments support the analysis done and throw more light on the stiff nature and ill posedness of the ODE systems. To validate the model, simulations have been performed on sets of data provided by the company. Comparison of numerical results (axial velocity profiles) has been done with the experimental profiles provided by the company. Numerical results have been found to be in excellent agreement with the experimental profiles.

Die vorliegende Arbeit wurde angeregt durch die in A.N. Borodin(2000) [Version of the Feynman-Kac Formula. Journal of Mathematical Sciences, 99(2):1044-1052, 2000] und in B. Simon(2000) [A Feynman-Kac Formula for Unbounded Semigroups. Canadian Math. Soc. Conf. Proc., 28:317-321, 2000] dargestellten Feynman-Kac-Formeln. Sie beschäftigt sich mit dem Problem, den Geltungsbereich der Feynman-Kac-Formel im Hinblick auf die Bedingungen der Potentiale und der Anfangsbedingung der zugehörigen partiellen Differentialgleichung zu erweitern. Es ist bekannt, dass die Feynman-Kac-Formel für beschränkte Potentiale gilt. Ausserdem gilt sie auch für Anfangsbedingungen, die im Raum \(C_{0}(\mathbb{R}^{n})\) oder im Raum \(C_{c}^{2}(\mathbb{R}^{n})\) liegen. Die Darstellung der Feynman-Kac-Formel für die Anfangsbedingung, die im Raum \(C_{c}^{2}(\mathbb{R}^{n})\) liegt, liefert die Lösung der partiellen Differentialgleichung. Wir können sie auch als stark stetige Halbgruppe auf dem Raum \(C_{0}(\mathbb{R}^{n})\) auffassen. Diese zwei verschiedenen Darstellungen sind äquivalent. In dieser Arbeit zeigen wir zunächst, dass die Feynman-Kac-Formel auch für unbeschränkte Potentiale \(V\) gilt, wobei \(|V(x)| \leq \varepsilon ||x||^{2} + C_{\varepsilon} \) für alle \(\varepsilon > 0; C_{\varepsilon} > 0\) und \(x \in \mathbb{R}^{n}\) ist. Ausserdem zeigen wir, dass sie für alle Anfangsbedingungen \(f\) gilt mit \(x \mapsto e^{-\varepsilon |x|^{2}} f(x) \in H^{2,2}(\mathbb{R}^{n})\). Der Beweis ist wahrscheinlichkeitstheoretisch und benutzt keine Spektraltheorie. Der spektraltheoretische Zugang, in dem eine Darstellung des Operators \(e^{-tH}\), wobei \(H = -\frac{1}{2} \Delta + V\) gegeben wird, wurde von B. Simon(2000) auch auf die obige Klasse von Potentialen ausgeweitet. Wir lassen zusätzlich auch Potentiale der Form \(V = V_{1} + V_{2}\) zu, wobei \(V_{1} \in L^{2}(\mathbb{R}^{3})\) ist und für alle \(\varepsilon > 0\) gibt es \(C_{\varepsilon} > 0\), so dass \(|V_{2}(x)| \leq\varepsilon ||x||^{2} + C_{\varepsilon}\) für alle \(x \in \mathbb{R}^{3}\) ist. Im Gegensatz zur klassischen Situation ist \(e^{-tH}\) jetzt ein unbeschränkter Operator. Schließlich wird in dieser Arbeit auch der Zusammenhang zwischen der Feynman-Kac-It\(\hat{o}\)-Formel, der Feynman-Kac-Formel und der Kolmogorov-Rückwärtsgleichung untersucht.

Competing Neural Networks as Models for Non Stationary Financial Time Series -Changepoint Analysis-
(2005)

The problem of structural changes (variations) play a central role in many scientific fields. One of the most current debates is about climatic changes. Further, politicians, environmentalists, scientists, etc. are involved in this debate and almost everyone is concerned with the consequences of climatic changes. However, in this thesis we will not move into the latter direction, i.e. the study of climatic changes. Instead, we consider models for analyzing changes in the dynamics of observed time series assuming these changes are driven by a non-observable stochastic process. To this end, we consider a first order stationary Markov Chain as hidden process and define the Generalized Mixture of AR-ARCH model(GMAR-ARCH) which is an extension of the classical ARCH model to suit to model with dynamical changes. For this model we provide sufficient conditions that ensure its geometric ergodic property. Further, we define a conditional likelihood given the hidden process and a pseudo conditional likelihood in turn. For the pseudo conditional likelihood we assume that at each time instant the autoregressive and volatility functions can be suitably approximated by given Feedfoward Networks. Under this setting the consistency of the parameter estimates is derived and versions of the well-known Expectation Maximization algorithm and Viterbi Algorithm are designed to solve the problem numerically. Moreover, considering the volatility functions to be constants, we establish the consistency of the autoregressive functions estimates given some parametric classes of functions in general and some classes of single layer Feedfoward Networks in particular. Beside this hidden Markov Driven model, we define as alternative a Weighted Least Squares for estimating the time of change and the autoregressive functions. For the latter formulation, we consider a mixture of independent nonlinear autoregressive processes and assume once more that the autoregressive functions can be approximated by given single layer Feedfoward Networks. We derive the consistency and asymptotic normality of the parameter estimates. Further, we prove the convergence of Backpropagation for this setting under some regularity assumptions. Last but not least, we consider a Mixture of Nonlinear autoregressive processes with only one abrupt unknown changepoint and design a statistical test that can validate such changes.

This thesis contains the mathematical treatment of a special class of analog microelectronic circuits called translinear circuits. The goal is to provide foundations of a new coherent synthesis approach for this class of circuits. The mathematical methods of the suggested synthesis approach come from graph theory, combinatorics, and from algebraic geometry, in particular symbolic methods from computer algebra. Translinear circuits form a very special class of analog circuits, because they rely on nonlinear device models, but still allow a very structured approach to network analysis and synthesis. Thus, translinear circuits play the role of a bridge between the "unknown space" of nonlinear circuit theory and the very well exploited domain of linear circuit theory. The nonlinear equations describing the behavior of translinear circuits possess a strong algebraic structure that is nonetheless flexible enough for a wide range of nonlinear functionality. Furthermore, translinear circuits offer several technical advantages like high functional density, low supply voltage and insensitivity to temperature. This unique profile is the reason that several authors consider translinear networks as the key to systematic synthesis methods for nonlinear circuits. The thesis proposes the usage of a computer-generated catalog of translinear network topologies as a synthesis tool. The idea to compile such a catalog has grown from the observation that on the one hand, the topology of a translinear network must satisfy strong constraints which severely limit the number of "admissible" topologies, in particular for networks with few transistors, and on the other hand, the topology of a translinear network already fixes its essential behavior, at least for static networks, because the so-called translinear principle requires the continuous parameters of all transistors to be the same. Even though the admissible topologies are heavily restricted, it is a highly nontrivial task to compile such a catalog. Combinatorial techniques have been adapted to undertake this task. In a catalog of translinear network topologies, prototype network equations can be stored along with each topology. When a circuit with a specified behavior is to be designed, one can search the catalog for a network whose equations can be matched with the desired behavior. In this context, two algebraic problems arise: To set up a meaningful equation for a network in the catalog, an elimination of variables must be performed, and to test whether a prototype equation from the catalog and a specified equation of desired behavior can be "matched", a complex system of polynomial equations must be solved, where the solutions are restricted to a finite set of integers. Sophisticated algorithms from computer algebra are applied in both cases to perform the symbolic computations. All mentioned algorithms have been implemented using C++, Singular, and Mathematica, and are successfully applied to actual design problems of humidity sensor circuitry at Analog Microelectronics GmbH, Mainz. As result of the research conducted, an exhaustive catalog of all static formal translinear networks with at most eight transistors is available. The application for the humidity sensor system proves the applicability of the developed synthesis approach. The details and implementations of the algorithms are worked out only for static networks, but can easily be adopted for dynamic networks as well. While the implementation of the combinatorial algorithms is stand-alone software written "from scratch" in C++, the implementation of the algebraic algorithms, namely the symbolic treatment of the network equations and the match finding, heavily rely on the sophisticated Gröbner basis engine of Singular and thus on more than a decade of experience contained in a special-purpose computer algebra system. It should be pointed out that the thesis contains the new observation that the translinear loop equations of a translinear network are precisely represented by the toric ideal of the network's translinear digraph. Altogether, this thesis confirms and strengthenes the key role of translinear circuits as systematically designable nonlinear circuits.