## Doctoral Thesis

### Refine

#### Year of publication

- 2008 (15) (remove)

#### Document Type

- Doctoral Thesis (15) (remove)

#### Keywords

- Level-Set-Methode (2)
- domain decomposition (2)
- mesh generation (2)
- Annulus (1)
- Bayes-Entscheidungstheorie (1)
- Biot Poroelastizitätgleichung (1)
- CDS (1)
- CPDO (1)
- Center Location (1)
- Circle Location (1)

#### Faculty / Organisational entity

- Fachbereich Mathematik (15) (remove)

This thesis covers two important fields in financial mathematics, namely the continuous time portfolio optimisation and credit risk modelling. We analyse optimisation problems of portfolios of Call and Put options on the stock and/or the zero coupon bond issued by a firm with default risk. We use the martingale approach for dynamic optimisation problems. Our findings show that the riskier the option gets, the less proportion of his wealth the investor allocates to the risky asset. Further, we analyse the Credit Default Swap (CDS) market quotes on the Eurobonds issued by Turkish sovereign for building the term structure of the sovereign credit risk. Two methods are introduced and compared for bootstrapping the risk-neutral probabilities of default (PD) in an intensity based (or reduced form) credit risk modelling approach. We compare the market-implied PDs with the actual PDs reported by credit rating agencies based on historical experience. Our results highlight the market price of the sovereign credit risk depending on the assigned rating category in the sampling period. Finally, we find an optimal leverage strategy for delivering the payments promised by a Constant Proportion Debt Obligation (CPDO). The problem is solved via the introduction and explicit solution of a stochastic control problem by transforming the related Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman Equation into its dual. Contrary to the industry practise, the optimal leverage function we derive is a non-linear function of the CPDO asset value. The simulations show promising behaviour of the optimal leverage function compared with the one popular among practitioners.

This dissertation deals with the optimization of the web formation in a spunbond process for the production of artificial fabrics. A mathematical model of the process is presented. Based on the model, two kind of attributes to be optimized are considered, those related with the quality of the fabric and those describing the stability of the production process. The problem falls in the multicriteria and decision making framework. The functions involved on the model of the process are non linear, non convex and non differentiable. A strategy in two steps; exploration and continuation, is proposed to approximate numerically the Pareto frontier and alternative methods are proposed to navigate the set and support the decision making process. The proposed strategy is applied to a particular production process and numerical results are presented.

The dissertation deals with the application of Hub Location models in public transport planning. The author proposes new mathematical models along with different solution approaches to solve the instances. Moreover, a novel multi-period formulation is proposed as an extension to the general model. Due to its high complexity heuristic approaches are formulated to find a good solution within a reasonable amount of time.

In many medical, financial, industrial, e.t.c. applications of statistics, the model parameters may undergo changes at unknown moment of time. In this thesis, we consider change point analysis in a regression setting for dichotomous responses, i.e. they can be modeled as Bernoulli or 0-1 variables. Applications are widespread including credit scoring in financial statistics and dose-response relations in biometry. The model parameters are estimated using neural network method. We show that the parameter estimates are identifiable up to a given family of transformations and derive the consistency and asymptotic normality of the network parameter estimates using the results in Franke and Neumann Franke Neumann (2000). We use a neural network based likelihood ratio test statistic to detect a change point in a given set of data and derive the limit distribution of the estimator using the results in Gombay and Horvath (1994,1996) under the assumption that the model is properly specified. For the misspecified case, we develop a scaled test statistic for the case of one-dimensional parameter. Through simulation, we show that the sample size, change point location and the size of change influence change point detection. In this work, the maximum likelihood estimation method is used to estimate a change point when it has been detected. Through simulation, we show that change point estimation is influenced by the sample size, change point location and the size of change. We present two methods for determining the change point confidence intervals: Profile log-likelihood ratio and Percentile bootstrap methods. Through simulation, the Percentile bootstrap method is shown to be superior to profile log-likelihood ratio method.

In this work we study and investigate the minimum width annulus problem (MWAP), the circle center location or circle location problem (CLP) and the point center location or point location problem (PLP) on Rectilinear and Chebyshev planes as well as in networks. The relations between the problems have served as a basis for finding of elegant solution, algorithms for both new and well known problems. So, MWAP was formulated and investigated in Rectilinear space. In contrast to Euclidean metric, MWAP and PLP have at least one common optimal point. Therefore, MWAP on Rectilinear plane was solved in linear time with the help of PLP. Hence, the solution sequence was PLP-->MWAP. It was shown, that MWAP and CLP are equivalent. Thus, CLP can be also solved in linear time. The obtained results were analysed and transfered to Chebyshev metric. After that, the notions of circle, sphere and annulus in networks were introduced. It should be noted that the notion of a circle in a network is different from the notion of a cycle. An O(mn) time algorithm for solution of MWAP was constructed and implemented. The algorithm is based on the fact that the middle point of an edge represents an optimal solution of a local minimum width annulus on this edge. The resulting complexity is better than the complexity O(mn+n^2logn) in unweighted case of the fastest known algorithm for minimizing of the range function, which is mathematically equivalent to MWAP. MWAP in unweighted undirected networks was extended to the MWAP on subsets and to the restricted MWAP. Resulting problems were analysed and solved. Also the p–minimum width annulus problem was formulated and explored. This problem is NP–hard. However, the p–MWAP has been solved in polynomial O(m^2n^3p) time with a natural assumption, that each minimum width annulus covers all vertexes of a network having distances to the central point of annulus less than or equal to the radius of its outer circle. In contrast to the planar case MWAP in undirected unweighted networks have appeared to be a root problem among considered problems. During investigation of properties of circles in networks it was shown that the difference between planar and network circles is significant. This leads to the nonequivalence of CLP and MWAP in the general case. However, MWAP was effectively used in solution procedures for CLP giving the sequence MWAP-->CLP. The complexity of the developed and implemented algorithm is of order O(m^2n^2). It is important to mention that CLP in networks has been formulated for the first time in this work and differs from the well–studied location of cycles in networks. We have constructed an O(mn+n^2logn) algorithm for well–known PLP. The complexity of this algorithm is not worse than the complexity of the currently best algorithms. But the concept of the solution procedure is new – we use MWAP in order to solve PLP building the opposite to the planar case solution sequence MWAP-->PLP and this method has the following advantages: First, the lower bounds LB obtained in the solution procedure are proved to be in any case better than the strongest Halpern’s lower bound. Second, the developed algorithm is so simple that it can be easily applied to complex networks manually. Third, the empirical complexity of the algorithm is equal to O(mn). MWAP was extended to and explored in directed unweighted and weighted networks. The complexity bound O(n^2) of the developed algorithm for finding of the center of a minimum width annulus in the unweighted case does not depend on the number of edges in a network, because the problems can be solved in the order PLP-->MWAP. In the weighted case computational time is of order O(mn^2).

Grey-box modelling deals with models which are able to integrate the following two kinds of information: qualitative (expert) knowledge and quantitative (data) knowledge, with equal importance. The doctoral thesis has two aims: the improvement of an existing neuro-fuzzy approach (LOLIMOT algorithm), and the development of a new model class with corresponding identification algorithm, based on multiresolution analysis (wavelets) and statistical methods. The identification algorithm is able to identify both hidden differential dynamics and hysteretic components. After the presentation of some improvements of the LOLIMOT algorithm based on readily normalized weight functions derived from decision trees, we investigate several mathematical theories, i.e. the theory of nonlinear dynamical systems and hysteresis, statistical decision theory, and approximation theory, in view of their applicability for grey-box modelling. These theories show us directly the way onto a new model class and its identification algorithm. The new model class will be derived from the local model networks through the following modifications: Inclusion of non-Gaussian noise sources; allowance of internal nonlinear differential dynamics represented by multi-dimensional real functions; introduction of internal hysteresis models through two-dimensional "primitive functions"; replacement respectively approximation of the weight functions and of the mentioned multi-dimensional functions by wavelets; usage of the sparseness of the matrix of the wavelet coefficients; and identification of the wavelet coefficients with Sequential Monte Carlo methods. We also apply this modelling scheme to the identification of a shock absorber.

This thesis shows an approach to combine the advantages of MBS tyre models and FEM models for the use in full vehicle simulations. The procedure proposed in this thesis aims to describe a nonlinear structure with a Finite Element approach combined with nonlinear model reduction methods. Unlike most model reduction methods - as the frequently used Craig-Bampton approach - the method of Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) offers a projection basis suitable for nonlinear models. For the linear wave equation, the POD method is studied comparing two different choices of snapshot sets. Set 1 consists of deformation snapshots, and set 2 additionally contains velocities and accelerations. An error analysis proves no convergence guarantee for deformations only. For inclusion of derivatives it yields an error bound diminishing for small time steps. The numerical results show a better behaviour for the derivative snapshot method, as long as the sum of the left-over eigenvalues is significant. For the reduction of nonlinear systems - especially when using commercial software - it is necessary to decouple the reduced surrogate system from the full model. To achieve this, a lookup table approach is presented. It makes use of the preceding computation step with the full model necessary to set up the POD basis (training step). The nonlinear term of inner forces and the stiffness matrix are output and stored in a lookup table for the reduced system. Numerical examples include a nonlinear string in Matlab and an airspring computed in Abaqus. Both examples show that effort reductions of two orders of magnitude are possible within a reasonable error tolerance. The lookup approaches perform faster than the Trajectory Piecewise Linear (TPWL) method and produce comparable errors. Furthermore, the Abaqus example shows the influence of training excitation on the quality of the reduced model.

The desire to model in ever increasing detail geometrical and physical features has lead to a steady increase in the number of points used in field solvers. While many solvers have been ported to parallel machines, grid generators have left behind. Sequential generation of meshes of large size is extremely problematic both in terms of time and memory requirements. Therefore, the need for developing parallel mesh generation technique is well justified. In this work a novel algorithm is presented for automatic parallel generation of tetrahedral computational meshes based on geometrical domain decomposition. It has a potential to remove this bottleneck. Different domain decomposition approaches and criteria have been investigated. Questions regarding time and memory consumption, efficiency of computations and quality of generated surface and volume meshes have been considered. As a result of the work parTgen (partitioner and parallel tetrahedral mesh generator) software package based on the developed algorithm has been created. Several real-life examples of relatively complex structures involving large meshes (of order 10^7-10^8 elements) are given. It has been shown that high mesh quality is achieved. Memory and time consumption are reduced significantly, and parallel algorithm is efficient.

This thesis is devoted to the study of tropical curves with emphasis on their enumerative geometry. Major results include a conceptual proof of the fact that the number of rational tropical plane curves interpolating an appropriate number of general points is independent of the choice of points, the computation of intersection products of Psi-classes on the moduli space of rational tropical curves, a computation of the number of tropical elliptic plane curves of given degree and fixed tropical j-invariant as well as a tropical analogue of the Riemann-Roch theorem for algebraic curves. The result are obtained in joint work with Hannah Markwig and/or Andreas Gathmann.

A modular level set algorithm is developed to study the interface and its movement for free moving boundary problems. The algorithm is divided into three basic modules : initialization, propagation and contouring. Initialization is the process of finding the signed distance function from closed objects. We discuss here, a methodology to find an accurate signed distance function from a closed, simply connected surface discretized by triangulation. We compute the signed distance function using the direct method and it is stored efficiently in the neighborhood of the interface by a narrow band level set method. A novel approach is employed to determine the correct sign of the distance function at convex-concave junctions of the surface. The accuracy and convergence of the method with respect to the surface resolution is studied. It is shown that the efficient organization of surface and narrow band data structures enables the solution of large industrial problems. We also compare the accuracy of the signed distance function by direct approach with Fast Marching Method (FMM). It is found that the direct approach is more accurate than FMM. Contouring is performed through a variant of the marching cube algorithm used for the isosurface construction from volumetric data sets. The algorithm is designed to keep foreground and background information consistent, contrary to the neutrality principle followed for surface rendering in computer graphics. The algorithm ensures that the isosurface triangulation is closed, non-degenerate and non-ambiguous. The constructed triangulation has desirable properties required for the generation of good volume meshes. These volume meshes are used in the boundary element method for the study of linear electrostatics. For estimating surface properties like interface position, normal and curvature accurately from a discrete level set function, a method based on higher order weighted least squares is developed. It is found that least squares approach is more accurate than finite difference approximation. Furthermore, the method of least squares requires a more compact stencil than those of finite difference schemes. The accuracy and convergence of the method depends on the surface resolution and the discrete mesh width. This approach is used in propagation for the study of mean curvature flow and bubble dynamics. The advantage of this approach is that the curvature is not discretized explicitly on the grid and is estimated on the interface. The method of constant velocity extension is employed for the propagation of the interface. With least squares approach, the mean curvature flow has considerable reduction in mass loss compared to finite difference techniques. In the bubble dynamics, the modules are used for the study of a bubble under the influence of surface tension forces to validate Young-Laplace law. It is found that the order of curvature estimation plays a crucial role for calculating accurate pressure difference between inside and outside of the bubble. Further, we study the coalescence of two bubbles under surface tension force. The application of these modules to various industrial problems is discussed.