## Report in Wirtschaftsmathematik (WIMA Report)

- 137
- Testing for parameter stability in nonlinear autoregressive models (2011)
- In this paper we develop testing procedures for the detection of structural changes in nonlinear autoregressive processes. For the detection procedure we model the regression function by a single layer feedforward neural network. We show that CUSUM-type tests based on cumulative sums of estimated residuals, that have been intensively studied for linear regression, can be extended to this case. The limit distribution under the null hypothesis is obtained, which is needed to construct asymptotic tests. For a large class of alternatives it is shown that the tests have asymptotic power one. In this case, we obtain a consistent change-point estimator which is related to the test statistics. Power and size are further investigated in a small simulation study with a particular emphasis on situations where the model is misspecified, i.e. the data is not generated by a neural network but some other regression function. As illustration, an application on the Nile data set as well as S&P log-returns is given.

- 133
- On a Cardinality Constrained Multicriteria Knapsack Problem (2011)
- We consider a variant of a knapsack problem with a fixed cardinality constraint. There are three objective functions to be optimized: one real-valued and two integer-valued objectives. We show that this problem can be solved efficiently by a local search. The algorithm utilizes connectedness of a subset of feasible solutions and has optimal run-time.

- 131
- Generalized Multiple Objective Bottleneck Problems (2010)
- We consider multiple objective combinatiorial optimization problems in which the first objective is of arbitrary type and the remaining objectives are either bottleneck or k-max objective functions. While the objective value of a bottleneck objective is determined by the largest cost value of any element in a feasible solution, the kth-largest element defines the objective value of the k-max objective. An efficient solution approach for the generation of the complete nondominated set is developed which is independent of the specific combinatiorial problem at hand. This implies a polynomial time algorithm for several important problem classes like shortest paths, spanning tree, and assignment problems with bottleneck objectives which are known to be NP-hard in the general multiple objective case.

- 128
- Universal Shortest Paths (2010)
- We introduce the universal shortest path problem (Univ-SPP) which generalizes both - classical and new - shortest path problems. Starting with the definition of the even more general universal combinatorial optimization problem (Univ-COP), we show that a variety of objective functions for general combinatorial problems can be modeled if all feasible solutions have the same cardinality. Since this assumption is, in general, not satisfied when considering shortest paths, we give two alternative definitions for Univ-SPP, one based on a sequence of cardinality contrained subproblems, the other using an auxiliary construction to establish uniform length for all paths between source and sink. Both alternatives are shown to be (strongly) NP-hard and they can be formulated as quadratic integer or mixed integer linear programs. On graphs with specific assumptions on edge costs and path lengths, the second version of Univ-SPP can be solved as classical sum shortest path problem.

- 126
- Weak Dependence of Functional INGARCH Processes (2010)
- We introduce a class of models for time series of counts which include INGARCH-type models as well as log linear models for conditionally Poisson distributed data. For those processes, we formulate simple conditions for stationarity and weak dependence with a geometric rate. The coupling argument used in the proof serves as a role model for a similar treatment of integer-valued time series models based on other types of thinning operations.

- 124
- Maximum Likelihood Estimators for Markov Switching Autoregressive Processes with ARCH Component (2009)
- We consider a mixture of AR-ARCH models where the switching between the basic states of the observed time series is controlled by a hidden Markov chain. Under simple conditions, we prove consistency and asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood parameter estimates combining general results on asymptotics of Douc et al (2004) and of geometric ergodicity of Franke et al (2007).

- 121
- Mixtures of Nonparametric Autoregression, revised (2009)
- We consider data generating mechanisms which can be represented as mixtures of finitely many regression or autoregression models. We propose nonparametric estimators for the functions characterizing the various mixture components based on a local quasi maximum likelihood approach and prove their consistency. We present an EM algorithm for calculating the estimates numerically which is mainly based on iteratively applying common local smoothers and discuss its convergence properties.

- 120
- Mixtures of Nonparametric Autoregressions (2009)
- We consider data generating mechanisms which can be represented as mixtures of finitely many regression or autoregression models. We propose nonparametric estimators for the functions characterizing the various mixture components based on a local quasi maximum likelihood approach and prove their consistency. We present an EM algorithm for calculating the estimates numerically which is mainly based on iteratively applying common local smoothers and discuss its convergence properties.

- 118
- A Note On Inverse Max Flow Problem Under Chebyshev Norm (2009)
- In this paper, we study the inverse maximum flow problem under \(\ell_\infty\)-norm and show that this problem can be solved by finding a maximum capacity path on a modified graph. Moreover, we consider an extension of the problem where we minimize the number of perturbations among all the optimal solutions of Chebyshev norm. This bicriteria version of the inverse maximum flow problem can also be solved in strongly polynomial time by finding a minimum \(s - t\) cut on the modified graph with a new capacity function.

- 115
- A Class of Switching Regimes Autoregressive Driven Processes with Exogenous Components (2008)
- In this paper we develop a data-driven mixture of vector autoregressive models with exogenous components. The process is assumed to change regimes according to an underlying Markov process. In contrast to the hidden Markov setup, we allow the transition probabilities of the underlying Markov process to depend on past time series values and exogenous variables. Such processes have potential applications to modeling brain signals. For example, brain activity at time t (measured by electroencephalograms) will can be modeled as a function of both its past values as well as exogenous variables (such as visual or somatosensory stimuli). Furthermore, we establish stationarity, geometric ergodicity and the existence of moments for these processes under suitable conditions on the parameters of the model. Such properties are important for understanding the stability properties of the model as well as deriving the asymptotic behavior of various statistics and model parameter estimators.