## Report in Wirtschaftsmathematik (WIMA Report)

### Filtern

#### Erscheinungsjahr

- 2011 (6) (entfernen)

#### Dokumenttyp

- Preprint (6) (entfernen)

#### Schlagworte

- autoregressive process (2)
- neural network (2)
- nonparametric regression (2)
- CUSUM statistic (1)
- Change analysis (1)
- INGARCH (1)
- Integer-valued time series (1)
- Knapsack problem (1)
- Parallel volume (1)
- Poisson autoregression (1)

140

The shortest path problem in which the \((s,t)\)-paths \(P\) of a given digraph \(G =(V,E)\) are compared with respect to the sum of their edge costs is one of the best known problems in combinatorial optimization. The paper is concerned with a number of variations of this problem having different objective functions like bottleneck, balanced, minimum deviation, algebraic sum, \(k\)-sum and \(k\)-max objectives, \((k_1, k_2)-max, (k_1, k_2)\)-balanced and several types of trimmed-mean objectives. We give a survey on existing algorithms and propose a general model for those problems not yet treated in literature. The latter is based on the solution of resource constrained shortest path problems with equality constraints which can be solved in pseudo-polynomial time if the given graph is acyclic and the number of resources is fixed. In our setting, however, these problems can be solved in strongly polynomial time. Combining this with known results on \(k\)-sum and \(k\)-max optimization for general combinatorial problems, we obtain strongly polynomial algorithms for a variety of path problems on acyclic and general digraphs.

137

In this paper we develop testing procedures for the detection of structural changes in nonlinear autoregressive processes. For the detection procedure we model the regression function by a single layer feedforward neural network. We show that CUSUM-type tests based on cumulative sums of estimated residuals, that have been intensively studied for linear regression, can be extended to this case. The limit distribution under the null hypothesis is obtained, which is needed to construct asymptotic tests. For a large class of alternatives it is shown that the tests have asymptotic power one. In this case, we obtain a consistent change-point estimator which is related to the test statistics. Power and size are further investigated in a small simulation study with a particular emphasis on situations where the model is misspecified, i.e. the data is not generated by a neural network but some other regression function. As illustration, an application on the Nile data set as well as S&P log-returns is given.

133

We consider a variant of a knapsack problem with a fixed cardinality constraint. There are three objective functions to be optimized: one real-valued and two integer-valued objectives. We show that this problem can be solved efficiently by a local search. The algorithm utilizes connectedness of a subset of feasible solutions and has optimal run-time.

141

In this paper, we discuss the problem of testing for a changepoint in the structure
of an integer-valued time series. In particular, we consider a test statistic
of cumulative sum (CUSUM) type for general Poisson autoregressions of order
1. We investigate the asymptotic behaviour of conditional least-squares estimates
of the parameters in the presence of a changepoint. Then, we derive the
asymptotic distribution of the test statistic under the hypothesis of no change,
allowing for the calculation of critical values. We prove consistency of the test,
i.e. asymptotic power 1, and consistency of the corresponding changepoint estimate.
As an application, we have a look at changepoint detection in daily
epileptic seizure counts from a clinical study.

139

In this paper we continue the investigation of the asymptotic behavior of the parallel volume in Minkowski spaces as the distance tends to infinity that was started in [13]. We will show that the difference of the parallel volume of the convex hull of a body and the parallel volume of the body itself can at most have order \(r^{d-2}\) in dimension \(d\). Then we will show that in the Euclidean case this difference can at most have order \(r^{d-3}\). We will also examine the asymptotic behavior of the derivative of this difference as the distance tends to infinity. After this we will compute the derivative of \(f_\mu (rK)\) in \(r\), where \(f_\mu\) is the Wills functional or a similar functional, \(K\) is a fixed body and \(rK\) is the Minkowski-product of \(r\) and \(K\). Finally we will use these results to examine Brownian paths and Boolean models and derive new proofs for formulae for intrinsic volumes.

138

We consider an autoregressive process with a nonlinear regression function that is modeled by a feedforward neural network. We derive a uniform central limit theorem which is useful in the context of change-point analysis. We propose a test for a change in the autoregression function which - by the uniform central limit theorem - has asymptotic power one for a large class of alternatives including local alternatives.