## Fachbereich Mathematik

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- 2003 (37) (entfernen)

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- ja (37) (entfernen)

#### Schlagworte

- Lineare Algebra (4)
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- Modellierung (4)
- linear algebra (4)
- modelling (4)
- praxisorientiert (4)
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- mathematical education (3)
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The thesis discusses discrete-time dynamic flows over a finite time horizon T. These flows take time, called travel time, to pass an arc of the network. Travel times, as well as other network attributes, such as, costs, arc and node capacities, and supply at the source node, can be constant or time-dependent. Here we review results on discrete-time dynamic flow problems (DTDNFP) with constant attributes and develop new algorithms to solve several DTDNFPs with time-dependent attributes. Several dynamic network flow problems are discussed: maximum dynamic flow, earliest arrival flow, and quickest flow problems. We generalize the hybrid capacity scaling and shortest augmenting path algorithmic of the static network flow problem to consider the time dependency of the network attributes. The result is used to solve the maximum dynamic flow problem with time-dependent travel times and capacities. We also develop a new algorithm to solve earliest arrival flow problems with the same assumptions on the network attributes. The possibility to wait (or park) at a node before departing on outgoing arc is also taken into account. We prove that the complexity of new algorithm is reduced when infinite waiting is considered. We also report the computational analysis of this algorithm. The results are then used to solve quickest flow problems. Additionally, we discuss time-dependent bicriteria shortest path problems. Here we generalize the classical shortest path problems in two ways. We consider two - in general contradicting - objective functions and introduce a time dependency of the cost which is caused by a travel time on each arc. These problems have several interesting practical applications, but have not attained much attention in the literature. Here we develop two new algorithms in which one of them requires weaker assumptions as in previous research on the subject. Numerical tests show the superiority of the new algorithms. We then apply dynamic network flow models and their associated solution algorithms to determine lower bounds of the evacuation time, evacuation routes, and maximum capacities of inhabited areas with respect to safety requirements. As a macroscopic approach, our dynamic network flow models are mainly used to produce good lower bounds for the evacuation time and do not consider any individual behavior during the emergency situation. These bounds can be used to analyze existing buildings or help in the design phase of planning a building.

Extensions of Shallow Water Equations The subject of the thesis of Michael Hilden is the simulation of floods in urban areas. In case of strong rain events, water can flow out of the overloaded sewer system onto the street and damage the connected houses. The dependable simulation of water flow out of a manhole ("manhole") and over a curb ("curb") is crucial for the assessment of the flood risks. The incompressible 3D-Navier-Stokes Equations (3D-NSE) describe the free surface flow of water accurately, but require expensive computations. Therefore, the less CPU-intensive (factor ca.1/100) Shallow Water Equations (SWE) are usually applied in hydrology. They can be derived from 3D-NSE under the assumption of a hydrostatic pressure distribution via depth-integration and are applied successfully in particular to simulations of river flow processes. The SWE-computations of the flow problems "manhole" and "curb" differ to the 3D-NSE results. Thus, SWE need to be extended appropriately to give reliable forecasts for flood risks in urban areas within reduced computational efforts. These extensions are developed based on physical considerations not considered in the classical SWE. In one extension, a vortex layer on the ground is separated from the main flow representing its new bottom. In a further extension, the hydrostatic pressure distribution is corrected by additional terms due to approximations of vertical velocities and their interaction with the flow. These extensions increase the quality of the SWE results for these flow problems up to the quality level of the NSE results within a moderate increase of the CPU efforts.

SST (satellite-to-satellite tracking) and SGG (satellite gravity gradiometry) provide data that allows the determination of the first and second order radial derivative of the earth's gravitational potential on the satellite orbit, respectively. The modeling of the gravitational potential from such data is an exponentially ill-posed problem that demands regularization. In this paper, we present the numerical studies of an approach, investigated in [24] and [25], that reconstructs the potential with spline smoothing. In this case, spline smoothing is not just an approximation procedure but it solves the underlying compact operator equation of the SST-problem and the SGG-problem. The numerical studies in this paper are performed for a simplified geometrical scenario with simulated data, but the approach is designed to handle first or second order radial derivative data on a real satellite orbit.

Zuerst einmal werden die Grundlagen der nichtparametrischen Regression sowie die der Kleinste-Quadrate-Schätzer behandelt und unser verwendetes Modell hergeleitet. Kapitel 3 führt dann in die Theorie der gewichteten Kernschätzer ein, wobei auch das asymptotische Verhalten genauer untersucht wird. Des Weiteren wird ein numerischer Algorithmus zur Berechnung der Kernschätzer angegeben. Die Simulationsstudie der gewichteten Kernschätzer anhand von Regressionsdaten und Zeitreihendaten sowie die praktische Beurteilung erfolgen in Kapitel 4 und 5. Reale Zeitreihendaten bilden danach im sechsten Kapitel die Grundlage für die praktische Betrachtung der neuen Schätzer. Im letzten Kapitel folgt dann ein Resümee und ein kleiner Ausblick auf die gewichteten Kernschätzer für allgemeinere Modelle.

Semiparametric estimation of conditional quantiles for time series, with applications in finance
(2003)

The estimation of conditional quantiles has become an increasingly important issue in insurance and financial risk management. The stylized facts of financial time series data has rendered direct applications of extreme value theory methodologies, in the estimation of extreme conditional quantiles, inappropriate. On the other hand, quantile regression based procedures work well in nonextreme parts of a given data but breaks down in extreme probability levels. In order to solve this problem, we combine nonparametric regressions for time series and extreme value theory approaches in the estimation of extreme conditional quantiles for financial time series. To do so, a class of time series models that is similar to nonparametric AR-(G)ARCH models but which does not depend on distributional and moments assumptions, is introduced. We discuss estimation procedures for the nonextreme levels using the models and consider the estimates obtained by inverting conditional distribution estimators and by direct estimation using Koenker-Basset (1978) version for kernels. Under some regularity conditions, the asymptotic normality and uniform convergence, with rates, of the conditional quantile estimator for strong mixing time series, are established. We study the estimation of scale function in the introduced models using similar procedures and show that under some regularity conditions, the scale estimate is weakly consistent and asymptotically normal. The application of introduced models in the estimation of extreme conditional quantiles is achieved by augmenting them with methods in extreme value theory. It is shown that the overal extreme conditional quantiles estimator is consistent. A Monte Carlo study is carried out to illustrate the good performance of the estimates and real data are used to demonstrate the estimation of Value-at-Risk and conditional expected shortfall in financial risk management and their multiperiod predictions discussed.

In this paper we consider the location of stops along the edges of an already existing public transportation network, as introduced in [SHLW02]. This can be the introduction of bus stops along some given bus routes, or of railway stations along the tracks in a railway network. The goal is to achieve a maximal covering of given demand points with a minimal number of stops. This bicriterial problem is in general NP-hard. We present a nite dominating set yielding an IP-formulation as a bicriterial set covering problem. We use this formulation to observe that along one single straight line the bicriterial stop location problem can be solved in polynomial time and present an e cient solution approach for this case. It can be used as the basis of an algorithm tackling real-world instances.