## Fachbereich Mathematik

- Risk Analysis of financial time series using neural networks (2005)
- An autoregressive-ARCH model with possible exogeneous variables is treated. We estimate the conditional volatility of the model by applying feedforward networks to the residuals and prove consistency and asymptotic normality for the estimates under the rate of feedforward networks complexity. Recurrent neural networks estimates of GARCH and value-at-risk is studied. We prove consistency and asymptotic normality for the recurrent neural networks ARMA estimator under the rate of recurrent networks complexity. We also overcome the estimation problem in stochastic variance models in discrete time by feedforward networks and the introduction of a new distributions on the innovations. We use the method to calculate market risk such as expected shortfall and Value-at risk. We tested this distribution together with other new distributions on the GARCH family models against other common distributions on the financial market such as Normal Inverse Gaussian, normal and the Student's t- distributions. As an application of the models, some German stocks are studied and the different approaches are compared together with the most common method of GARCH(1,1) fit.

- Competing Neural Networks as Models for Non Stationary Financial Time Series -Changepoint Analysis- (2005)
- The problem of structural changes (variations) play a central role in many scientific fields. One of the most current debates is about climatic changes. Further, politicians, environmentalists, scientists, etc. are involved in this debate and almost everyone is concerned with the consequences of climatic changes. However, in this thesis we will not move into the latter direction, i.e. the study of climatic changes. Instead, we consider models for analyzing changes in the dynamics of observed time series assuming these changes are driven by a non-observable stochastic process. To this end, we consider a first order stationary Markov Chain as hidden process and define the Generalized Mixture of AR-ARCH model(GMAR-ARCH) which is an extension of the classical ARCH model to suit to model with dynamical changes. For this model we provide sufficient conditions that ensure its geometric ergodic property. Further, we define a conditional likelihood given the hidden process and a pseudo conditional likelihood in turn. For the pseudo conditional likelihood we assume that at each time instant the autoregressive and volatility functions can be suitably approximated by given Feedfoward Networks. Under this setting the consistency of the parameter estimates is derived and versions of the well-known Expectation Maximization algorithm and Viterbi Algorithm are designed to solve the problem numerically. Moreover, considering the volatility functions to be constants, we establish the consistency of the autoregressive functions estimates given some parametric classes of functions in general and some classes of single layer Feedfoward Networks in particular. Beside this hidden Markov Driven model, we define as alternative a Weighted Least Squares for estimating the time of change and the autoregressive functions. For the latter formulation, we consider a mixture of independent nonlinear autoregressive processes and assume once more that the autoregressive functions can be approximated by given single layer Feedfoward Networks. We derive the consistency and asymptotic normality of the parameter estimates. Further, we prove the convergence of Backpropagation for this setting under some regularity assumptions. Last but not least, we consider a Mixture of Nonlinear autoregressive processes with only one abrupt unknown changepoint and design a statistical test that can validate such changes.

- Spherical Location Problems with Restricted Regions and Polygonal Barriers (2005)
- This thesis investigates the constrained form of the spherical Minimax location problem and the spherical Weber location problem. Specifically, we consider the problem of locating a new facility on the surface of the unit sphere in the presence of convex spherical polygonal restricted regions and forbidden regions such that the maximum weighted distance from the new facility on the surface of the unit sphere to m existing facilities is minimized and the sum of the weighted distance from the new facility on the surface of the unit sphere to m existing facilities is minimized. It is assumed that a forbidden region is an area on the surface of the unit sphere where travel and facility location are not permitted and that distance is measured using the great circle arc distance. We represent a polynomial time algorithm for the spherical Minimax location problem for the special case where all the existing facilities are located on the surface of a hemisphere. Further, we have developed algorithms for spherical Weber location problem using barrier distance on a hemisphere as well as on the unit sphere.

- Crash Hedging Strategies and Optimal Portfolios (2004)
- In traditional portfolio optimization under the threat of a crash the investment horizon or time to maturity is neglected. Developing the so-called crash hedging strategies (which are portfolio strategies which make an investor indifferent to the occurrence of an uncertain (down) jumps of the price of the risky asset) the time to maturity turns out to be essential. The crash hedging strategies are derived as solutions of non-linear differential equations which itself are consequences of an equilibrium strategy. Hereby the situation of changing market coefficients after a possible crash is considered for the case of logarithmic utility as well as for the case of general utility functions. A benefit-cost analysis of the crash hedging strategy is done as well as a comparison of the crash hedging strategy with the optimal portfolio strategies given in traditional crash models. Moreover, it will be shown that the crash hedging strategies optimize the worst-case bound for the expected utility from final wealth subject to some restrictions. Another application is to model crash hedging strategies in situations where both the number and the height of the crash are uncertain but bounded. Taking the additional information of the probability of a possible crash happening into account leads to the development of the q-quantile crash hedging strategy.

- Die Feynman-Kac-Formel für unbeschränkte Potentiale und allgemeine Anfangsbedingungen (2005)
- Die vorliegende Arbeit wurde angeregt durch die in A.N. Borodin(2000) [Version of the Feynman-Kac Formula. Journal of Mathematical Sciences, 99(2):1044-1052, 2000] und in B. Simon(2000) [A Feynman-Kac Formula for Unbounded Semigroups. Canadian Math. Soc. Conf. Proc., 28:317-321, 2000] dargestellten Feynman-Kac-Formeln. Sie beschäftigt sich mit dem Problem, den Geltungsbereich der Feynman-Kac-Formel im Hinblick auf die Bedingungen der Potentiale und der Anfangsbedingung der zugehörigen partiellen Differentialgleichung zu erweitern. Es ist bekannt, dass die Feynman-Kac-Formel für beschränkte Potentiale gilt. Ausserdem gilt sie auch für Anfangsbedingungen, die im Raum \(C_{0}(\mathbb{R}^{n})\) oder im Raum \(C_{c}^{2}(\mathbb{R}^{n})\) liegen. Die Darstellung der Feynman-Kac-Formel für die Anfangsbedingung, die im Raum \(C_{c}^{2}(\mathbb{R}^{n})\) liegt, liefert die Lösung der partiellen Differentialgleichung. Wir können sie auch als stark stetige Halbgruppe auf dem Raum \(C_{0}(\mathbb{R}^{n})\) auffassen. Diese zwei verschiedenen Darstellungen sind äquivalent. In dieser Arbeit zeigen wir zunächst, dass die Feynman-Kac-Formel auch für unbeschränkte Potentiale \(V\) gilt, wobei \(|V(x)| \leq \varepsilon ||x||^{2} + C_{\varepsilon} \) für alle \(\varepsilon > 0; C_{\varepsilon} > 0\) und \(x \in \mathbb{R}^{n}\) ist. Ausserdem zeigen wir, dass sie für alle Anfangsbedingungen \(f\) gilt mit \(x \mapsto e^{-\varepsilon |x|^{2}} f(x) \in H^{2,2}(\mathbb{R}^{n})\). Der Beweis ist wahrscheinlichkeitstheoretisch und benutzt keine Spektraltheorie. Der spektraltheoretische Zugang, in dem eine Darstellung des Operators \(e^{-tH}\), wobei \(H = -\frac{1}{2} \Delta + V\) gegeben wird, wurde von B. Simon(2000) auch auf die obige Klasse von Potentialen ausgeweitet. Wir lassen zusätzlich auch Potentiale der Form \(V = V_{1} + V_{2}\) zu, wobei \(V_{1} \in L^{2}(\mathbb{R}^{3})\) ist und für alle \(\varepsilon > 0\) gibt es \(C_{\varepsilon} > 0\), so dass \(|V_{2}(x)| \leq\varepsilon ||x||^{2} + C_{\varepsilon}\) für alle \(x \in \mathbb{R}^{3}\) ist. Im Gegensatz zur klassischen Situation ist \(e^{-tH}\) jetzt ein unbeschränkter Operator. Schließlich wird in dieser Arbeit auch der Zusammenhang zwischen der Feynman-Kac-It\(\hat{o}\)-Formel, der Feynman-Kac-Formel und der Kolmogorov-Rückwärtsgleichung untersucht.

- A mathematical analysis of foam films (2004)
- In the filling process of a car tank, the formation of foam plays an unwanted role, as it may prevent the tank from being completely filled or at least delay the filling. Therefore it is of interest to optimize the geometry of the tank using numerical simulation in such a way that the influence of the foam is minimized. In this dissertation, we analyze the behaviour of the foam mathematically on the mezoscopic scale, that is for single lamellae. The most important goals are on the one hand to gain a deeper understanding of the interaction of the relevant physical effects, on the other hand to obtain a model for the simulation of the decay of a lamella which can be integrated in a global foam model. In the first part of this work, we give a short introduction into the physical properties of foam and find that the Marangoni effect is the main cause for its stability. We then develop a mathematical model for the simulation of the dynamical behaviour of a lamella based on an asymptotic analysis using the special geometry of the lamella. The result is a system of nonlinear partial differential equations (PDE) of third order in two spatial and one time dimension. In the second part, we analyze this system mathematically and prove an existence and uniqueness result for a simplified case. For some special parameter domains the system can be further simplified, and in some cases explicit solutions can be derived. In the last part of the dissertation, we solve the system using a finite element approach and discuss the results in detail.

- An Alternative Approach to the Oblique Derivative Problem in Potential Theory (2004)
- Nowadays one of the major objectives in geosciences is the determination of the gravitational field of our planet, the Earth. A precise knowledge of this quantity is not just interesting on its own but it is indeed a key point for a vast number of applications. The important question is how to obtain a good model for the gravitational field on a global scale. The only applicable solution - both in costs and data coverage - is the usage of satellite data. We concentrate on highly precise measurements which will be obtained by GOCE (Gravity Field and Steady State Ocean Circulation Explorer, launch expected 2006). This satellite has a gradiometer onboard which returns the second derivatives of the gravitational potential. Mathematically seen we have to deal with several obstacles. The first one is that the noise in the different components of these second derivatives differs over several orders of magnitude, i.e. a straightforward solution of this outer boundary value problem will not work properly. Furthermore we are not interested in the data at satellite height but we want to know the field at the Earth's surface, thus we need a regularization (downward-continuation) of the data. These two problems are tackled in the thesis and are now described briefly. Split Operators: We have to solve an outer boundary value problem at the height of the satellite track. Classically one can handle first order side conditions which are not tangential to the surface and second derivatives pointing in the radial direction employing integral and pseudo differential equation methods. We present a different approach: We classify all first and purely second order operators which fulfill that a harmonic function stays harmonic under their application. This task is done by using modern algebraic methods for solving systems of partial differential equations symbolically. Now we can look at the problem with oblique side conditions as if we had ordinary i.e. non-derived side conditions. The only additional work which has to be done is an inversion of the differential operator, i.e. integration. In particular we are capable to deal with derivatives which are tangential to the boundary. Auto-Regularization: The second obstacle is finding a proper regularization procedure. This is complicated by the fact that we are facing stochastic rather than deterministic noise. The main question is how to find an optimal regularization parameter which is impossible without any additional knowledge. However we could show that with a very limited number of additional information, which are obtainable also in practice, we can regularize in an asymptotically optimal way. In particular we showed that the knowledge of two input data sets allows an order optimal regularization procedure even under the hard conditions of Gaussian white noise and an exponentially ill-posed problem. A last but rather simple task is combining data from different derivatives which can be done by a weighted least squares approach using the information we obtained out of the regularization procedure. A practical application to the downward-continuation problem for simulated gravitational data is shown.

- Families of hypersurfaces with many prescribed singularities (2004)
- In this dissertation we consider complex, projective hypersurfaces with many isolated singularities. The leading questions concern the maximal number of prescribed singularities of such hypersurfaces in a given linear system, and geometric properties of the equisingular stratum. In the first part a systematic introduction to the theory of equianalytic families of hypersurfaces is given. Furthermore, the patchworking method for constructing hypersurfaces with singularities of prescribed types is described. In the second part we present new existence results for hypersurfaces with many singularities. Using the patchworking method, we show asymptotically proper results for hypersurfaces in P^n with singularities of corank less than two. In the case of simple singularities, the results are even asymptotically optimal. These statements improve all previous general existence results for hypersurfaces with these singularities. Moreover, the results are also transferred to hypersurfaces defined over the real numbers. The last part of the dissertation deals with the Castelnuovo function for studying the cohomology of ideal sheaves of zero-dimensional schemes. Parts of the theory of this function for schemes in P^2 are generalized to the case of schemes on general surfaces in P^3. As an application we show an H^1-vanishing theorem for such schemes.

- Some Large Deviation Results for Diffusion Processes (2004)
- In this text we survey some large deviation results for diffusion processes. The first chapters present results from the literature such as the Freidlin-Wentzell theorem for diffusions with small noise. We use these results to prove a new large deviation theorem about diffusion processes with strong drift. This is the main result of the thesis. In the later chapters we give another application of large deviation results, namely to determine the exponential decay rate for the Bayes risk when separating two different processes. The final chapter presents techniques which help to experiment with rare events for diffusion processes by means of computer simulations.

- Numerical solution of coupled flow in plain and porous media (2003)
- The present thesis deals with coupled steady state laminar flows of isothermal incompressible viscous Newtonian fluids in plain and in porous media. The flow in the pure fluid region is usually described by the (Navier-)Stokes system of equations. The most popular models for the flow in the porous media are those suggested by Darcy and by Brinkman. Interface conditions, proposed in the mathematical literature for coupling Darcy and Navier-Stokes equations, are shortly reviewed in the thesis. The coupling of Navier-Stokes and Brinkman equations in the literature is based on the so called continuous stress tensor interface conditions. One of the main tasks of this thesis is to investigate another type of interface conditions, namely, the recently suggested stress tensor jump interface conditions. The mathematical models based on these interface conditions were not carefully investigated from the mathematical point of view, and also their validity was a subject of discussions. The considerations within this thesis are a step toward better understanding of these interface conditions. Several aspects of the numerical simulations of such coupled flows are considered: -the choice of proper interface conditions between the plain and porous media -analysis of the well-posedness of the arising systems of partial differential equations; -developing numerical algorithm for the stress tensor jump interface conditions, coupling Navier-Stokes equations in the pure liquid media with the Navier-Stokes-Brinkman equations in the porous media; -validation of the macroscale mathematical models on the base of a comparison with the results from a direct numerical simulation of model representative problems, allowing for grid resolution of the pore level geometry; -developing software and performing numerical simulation of 3-D industrial flows, namely of oil flows through car filters.