## Fachbereich Mathematik

- Zinsoptimiertes Schuldenmanagement (2014)
- Das zinsoptimierte Schuldenmanagement hat zum Ziel, eine möglichst effiziente Abwägung zwischen den erwarteten Finanzierungskosten einerseits und den Risiken für den Staatshaushalt andererseits zu finden. Um sich diesem Spannungsfeld zu nähern, schlagen wir erstmals die Brücke zwischen den Problemstellungen des Schuldenmanagements und den Methoden der zeitkontinuierlichen, dynamischen Portfoliooptimierung. Das Schlüsselelement ist dabei eine neue Metrik zur Messung der Finanzierungskosten, die Perpetualkosten. Diese spiegeln die durchschnittlichen zukünftigen Finanzierungskosten wider und beinhalten sowohl die bereits bekannten Zinszahlungen als auch die noch unbekannten Kosten für notwendige Anschlussfinanzierungen. Daher repräsentiert die Volatilität der Perpetualkosten auch das Risiko einer bestimmten Strategie; je langfristiger eine Finanzierung ist, desto kleiner ist die Schwankungsbreite der Perpetualkosten. Die Perpetualkosten ergeben sich als Produkt aus dem Barwert eines Schuldenportfolios und aus der vom Portfolio unabhängigen Perpetualrate. Für die Modellierung des Barwertes greifen wir auf das aus der dynamischen Portfoliooptimierung bekannte Konzept eines selbstfinanzierenden Bondportfolios zurück, das hier auf einem mehrdimensionalen affin-linearen Zinsmodell basiert. Das Wachstum des Schuldenportfolios wird dabei durch die Einbeziehung des Primärüberschusses des Staates gebremst bzw. verhindert, indem wir diesen als externen Zufluss in das selbstfinanzierende Modell aufnehmen. Wegen der Vielfältigkeit möglicher Finanzierungsinstrumente wählen wir nicht deren Wertanteile als Kontrollvariable, sondern kontrollieren die Sensitivitäten des Portfolios gegenüber verschiedenen Zinsbewegungen. Aus optimalen Sensitivitäten können in einem nachgelagerten Schritt dann optimale Wertanteile für verschiedenste Finanzierungsinstrumente abgeleitet werden. Beispielhaft demonstrieren wir dies mittels Rolling-Horizon-Bonds unterschiedlicher Laufzeit. Schließlich lösen wir zwei Optimierungsprobleme mit Methoden der stochastischen Kontrolltheorie. Dabei wird stets der erwartete Nutzen der Perpetualkosten maximiert. Die Nutzenfunktionen sind jeweils an das Schuldenmanagement angepasst und zeichnen sich insbesondere dadurch aus, dass höhere Kosten mit einem niedrigeren Nutzen einhergehen. Im ersten Problem betrachten wir eine Potenznutzenfunktion mit konstanter relativer Risikoaversion, im zweiten wählen wir eine Nutzenfunktion, welche die Einhaltung einer vorgegebenen Schulden- bzw. Kostenobergrenze garantiert.

- Variance Reduction Procedures for Market Risk Estimation (2014)
- Monte Carlo simulation is one of the commonly used methods for risk estimation on financial markets, especially for option portfolios, where any analytical approximation is usually too inaccurate. However, the usually high computational effort for complex portfolios with a large number of underlying assets motivates the application of variance reduction procedures. Variance reduction for estimating the probability of high portfolio losses has been extensively studied by Glasserman et al. A great variance reduction is achieved by applying an exponential twisting importance sampling algorithm together with stratification. The popular and much faster Delta-Gamma approximation replaces the portfolio loss function in order to guide the choice of the importance sampling density and it plays the role of the stratification variable. The main disadvantage of the proposed algorithm is that it is derived only in the case of Gaussian and some heavy-tailed changes in risk factors. Hence, our main goal is to keep the main advantage of the Monte Carlo simulation, namely its ability to perform a simulation under alternative assumptions on the distribution of the changes in risk factors, also in the variance reduction algorithms. Step by step, we construct new variance reduction techniques for estimating the probability of high portfolio losses. They are based on the idea of the Cross-Entropy importance sampling procedure. More precisely, the importance sampling density is chosen as the closest one to the optimal importance sampling density (zero variance estimator) out of some parametric family of densities with respect to Kullback - Leibler cross-entropy. Our algorithms are based on the special choices of the parametric family and can now use any approximation of the portfolio loss function. A special stratification is developed, so that any approximation of the portfolio loss function under any assumption of the distribution of the risk factors can be used. The constructed algorithms can easily be applied for any distribution of risk factors, no matter if light- or heavy-tailed. The numerical study exhibits a greater variance reduction than of the algorithm from Glasserman et al. The use of a better approximation may improve the performance of our algorithms significantly, as it is shown in the numerical study. The literature on the estimation of the popular market risk measures, namely VaR and CVaR, often refers to the algorithms for estimating the probability of high portfolio losses, describing the corresponding transition process only briefly. Hence, we give a consecutive discussion of this problem. Results necessary to construct confidence intervals for both measures under the mentioned variance reduction procedures are also given.

- New aspects of optimal investment in continuous time (2014)
- This thesis focuses on dealing with some new aspects of continuous time portfolio optimization by using the stochastic control method. First, we extend the Busch-Korn-Seifried model for a large investor by using the Vasicek model for the short rate, and that problem is solved explicitly for two types of intensity functions. Next, we justify the existence of the constant proportion portfolio insurance (CPPI) strategy in a framework containing a stochastic short rate and a Markov switching parameter. The effect of Vasicek short rate on the CPPI strategy has been studied by Horsky (2012). This part of the thesis extends his research by including a Markov switching parameter, and the generalization is based on the B\"{a}uerle-Rieder investment problem. The explicit solutions are obtained for the portfolio problem without the Money Market Account as well as the portfolio problem with the Money Market Account. Finally, we apply the method used in Busch-Korn-Seifried investment problem to explicitly solve the portfolio optimization with a stochastic benchmark.

- Edgeworth Expansions for Binomial Trees (2014)
- In the theory of option pricing one is usually concerned with evaluating expectations under the risk-neutral measure in a continuous-time model. However, very often these values cannot be calculated explicitly and numerical methods need to be applied to approximate the desired quantity. Monte Carlo simulations, numerical methods for PDEs and the lattice approach are the methods typically employed. In this thesis we consider the latter approach, with the main focus on binomial trees. The binomial method is based on the concept of weak convergence. The discrete-time model is constructed so as to ensure convergence in distribution to the continuous process. This means that the expectations calculated in the binomial tree can be used as approximations of the option prices in the continuous model. The binomial method is easy to implement and can be adapted to options with different types of payout structures, including American options. This makes the approach very appealing. However, the problem is that in many cases, the convergence of the method is slow and highly irregular, and even a fine discretization does not guarantee accurate price approximations. Therefore, ways of improving the convergence properties are required. We apply Edgeworth expansions to study the convergence behavior of the lattice approach. We propose a general framework, that allows to obtain asymptotic expansion for both multinomial and multidimensional trees. This information is then used to construct advanced models with superior convergence properties. In binomial models we usually deal with triangular arrays of lattice random vectors. In this case the available results on Edgeworth expansions for lattices are not directly applicable. Therefore, we first present Edgeworth expansions, which are also valid for the binomial tree setting. We then apply these result to the one-dimensional and multidimensional Black-Scholes models. We obtain third order expansions for general binomial and trinomial trees in the 1D setting, and construct advanced models for digital, vanilla and barrier options. Second order expansion are provided for the standard 2D binomial trees and advanced models are constructed for the two-asset digital and the two-asset correlation options. We also present advanced binomial models for a multidimensional setting.

- Portfoliooptimierung im Binomialmodell (2014)
- Die Dissertation "Portfoliooptimierung im Binomialmodell" befasst sich mit der Frage, inwieweit das Problem der optimalen Portfolioauswahl im Binomialmodell lösbar ist bzw. inwieweit die Ergebnisse auf das stetige Modell übertragbar sind. Dabei werden neben dem klassischen Modell ohne Kosten und ohne Veränderung der Marktsituation auch Modellerweiterungen untersucht.

- Algorithms in SINGULAR: Parallelization, Syzygies, and Singularities (2014)
- This thesis, whose subject is located in the field of algorithmic commutative algebra and algebraic geometry, consists of three parts. The first part is devoted to parallelization, a technique which allows us to take advantage of the computational power of modern multicore processors. First, we present parallel algorithms for the normalization of a reduced affine algebra A over a perfect field. Starting from the algorithm of Greuel, Laplagne, and Seelisch, we propose two approaches. For the local-to-global approach, we stratify the singular locus Sing(A) of A, compute the normalization locally at each stratum and finally reconstruct the normalization of A from the local results. For the second approach, we apply modular methods to both the global and the local-to-global normalization algorithm. Second, we propose a parallel version of the algorithm of Gianni, Trager, and Zacharias for primary decomposition. For the parallelization of this algorithm, we use modular methods for the computationally hardest steps, such as for the computation of the associated prime ideals in the zero-dimensional case and for the standard bases computations. We then apply an innovative fast method to verify that the result is indeed a primary decomposition of the input ideal. This allows us to skip the verification step at each of the intermediate modular computations. The proposed parallel algorithms are implemented in the open-source computer algebra system SINGULAR. The implementation is based on SINGULAR's new parallel framework which has been developed as part of this thesis and which is specifically designed for applications in mathematical research. In the second part, we propose new algorithms for the computation of syzygies, based on an in-depth analysis of Schreyer's algorithm. Here, the main ideas are that we may leave out so-called "lower order terms" which do not contribute to the result of the algorithm, that we do not need to order the terms of certain module elements which occur at intermediate steps, and that some partial results can be cached and reused. Finally, the third part deals with the algorithmic classification of singularities over the real numbers. First, we present a real version of the Splitting Lemma and, based on the classification theorems of Arnold, algorithms for the classification of the simple real singularities. In addition to the algorithms, we also provide insights into how real and complex singularities are related geometrically. Second, we explicitly describe the structure of the equivalence classes of the unimodal real singularities of corank 2. We prove that the equivalences are given by automorphisms of a certain shape. Based on this theorem, we explain in detail how the structure of the equivalence classes can be computed using SINGULAR and present the results in concise form. The probably most surprising outcome is that the real singularity type \(J_{10}^-\) is actually redundant.

- Algorithmic aspects of tropical intersection theory (2014)
- In the first part of this thesis we study algorithmic aspects of tropical intersection theory. We analyse how divisors and intersection products on tropical cycles can actually be computed using polyhedral geometry. The main focus is the study of moduli spaces, where the underlying combinatorics of the varieties involved allow a much more efficient way of computing certain tropical cycles. The algorithms discussed here have been implemented in an extension for polymake, a software for polyhedral computations. In the second part we apply the algorithmic toolkit developed in the first part to the study of tropical double Hurwitz cycles. Hurwitz cycles are a higher-dimensional generalization of Hurwitz numbers, which count covers of \(\mathbb{P}^1\) by smooth curves of a given genus with a certain fixed ramification behaviour. Double Hurwitz numbers provide a strong connection between various mathematical disciplines, including algebraic geometry, representation theory and combinatorics. The tropical cycles have a rather complex combinatorial nature, so it is very difficult to study them purely "by hand". Being able to compute examples has been very helpful in coming up with theoretical results. Our main result states that all marked and unmarked Hurwitz cycles are connected in codimension one and that for a generic choice of simple ramification points the marked cycle is a multiple of an irreducible cycle. In addition we provide computational examples to show that this is the strongest possible statement.

- Efficient Algorithms for Flow Simulation related to Nuclear Reactor Safety (2014)
- Safety analysis is of ultimate importance for operating Nuclear Power Plants (NPP). The overall modeling and simulation of physical and chemical processes occuring in the course of an accident is an interdisciplinary problem and has origins in fluid dynamics, numerical analysis, reactor tech- nology and computer programming. The aim of the study is therefore to create the foundations of a multi-dimensional non-isothermal fluid model for a NPP containment and software tool based on it. The numerical simulations allow to analyze and predict the behavior of NPP systems under different working and accident conditions, and to develop proper action plans for minimizing the risks of accidents, and/or minimizing the consequences of possible accidents. A very large number of scenarios have to be simulated, and at the same time acceptable accuracy for the critical param- eters, such as radioactive pollution, temperature, etc., have to be achieved. The existing software tools are either too slow, or not accurate enough. This thesis deals with developing customized al- gorithm and software tools for simulation of isothermal and non-isothermal flows in a containment pool of NPP. Requirements to such a software are formulated, and proper algorithms are presented. The goal of the work is to achieve a balance between accuracy and speed of calculation, and to develop customized algorithm for this special case. Different discretization and solution approaches are studied and those which correspond best to the formulated goal are selected, adjusted, and when possible, analysed. Fast directional splitting algorithm for Navier-Stokes equations in complicated geometries, in presence of solid and porous obstales, is in the core of the algorithm. Developing suitable pre-processor and customized domain decomposition algorithms are essential part of the overall algorithm amd software. Results from numerical simulations in test geometries and in real geometries are presented and discussed.

- Efficient algorithms for Asymmetric Flow Field Flow Fractionation (2014)
- This thesis is devoted to the modeling and simulation of Asymmetric Flow Field Flow Fractionation, which is a technique for separating particles of submicron scale. This process is a part of large family of Field Flow Fractionation techniques and has a very broad range of industrial applications, e. g. in microbiology, chemistry, pharmaceutics, environmental analysis. Mathematical modeling is crucial for this process, as due to the own nature of the process, lab ex- periments are difficult and expensive to perform. On the other hand, there are several challenges for the mathematical modeling: huge dominance (up to 106 times) of the flow over the diffusion, highly stretched geometry of the device. This work is devoted to developing fast and efficient algorithms, which take into the account the challenges, posed by the application, and provide reliable approximations for the quantities of interest. We present a new Multilevel Monte Carlo method for estimating the distribution functions on a compact interval, which are of the main interest for Asymmetric Flow Field Flow Fractionation. Error estimates for this method in terms of computational cost are also derived. We optimize the flow control at the Focusing stage under the given constraints on the flow and present an important ingredients for the further optimization, such as two-grid Reduced Basis method, specially adapted for the Finite Volume discretization approach.

- Pedestrian Flow Models (2014)
- There have been many crowd disasters because of poor planning of the events. Pedestrian models are useful in analysing the behavior of pedestrians in advance to the events so that no pedestrians will be harmed during the event. This thesis deals with pedestrian flow models on microscopic, hydrodynamic and scalar scales. By following the Hughes' approach, who describes the crowd as a thinking fluid, we use the solution of the Eikonal equation to compute the optimal path for pedestrians. We start with the microscopic model for pedestrian flow and then derive the hydrodynamic and scalar models from it. We use particle methods to solve the governing equations. Moreover, we have coupled a mesh free particle method to the fixed grid for solving the Eikonal equation. We consider an example with a large number of pedestrians to investigate our models for different settings of obstacles and for different parameters. We also consider the pedestrian flow in a straight corridor and through T-junction and compare our numerical results with the experiments. A part of this work is devoted for finding a mesh free method to solve the Eikonal equation. Most of the available methods to solve the Eikonal equation are restricted to either cartesian grid or triangulated grid. In this context, we propose a mesh free method to solve the Eikonal equation, which can be applicable to any arbitrary grid and useful for the complex geometries.