The estimation of conditional quantiles has become an increasingly important issue in insurance and financial risk management. The stylized facts of financial time series data has rendered direct applications of extreme value theory methodologies, in the estimation of extreme conditional quantiles, inappropriate. On the other hand, quantile regression based procedures work well in nonextreme parts of a given data but breaks down in extreme probability levels. In order to solve this problem, we combine nonparametric regressions for time series and extreme value theory approaches in the estimation of extreme conditional quantiles for financial time series. To do so, a class of time series models that is similar to nonparametric AR-(G)ARCH models but which does not depend on distributional and moments assumptions, is introduced. We discuss estimation procedures for the nonextreme levels using the models and consider the estimates obtained by inverting conditional distribution estimators and by direct estimation using Koenker-Basset (1978) version for kernels. Under some regularity conditions, the asymptotic normality and uniform convergence, with rates, of the conditional quantile estimator for strong mixing time series, are established. We study the estimation of scale function in the introduced models using similar procedures and show that under some regularity conditions, the scale estimate is weakly consistent and asymptotically normal. The application of introduced models in the estimation of extreme conditional quantiles is achieved by augmenting them with methods in extreme value theory. It is shown that the overal extreme conditional quantiles estimator is consistent. A Monte Carlo study is carried out to illustrate the good performance of the estimates and real data are used to demonstrate the estimation of Value-at-Risk and conditional expected shortfall in financial risk management and their multiperiod predictions discussed.
Extensions of Shallow Water Equations The subject of the thesis of Michael Hilden is the simulation of floods in urban areas. In case of strong rain events, water can flow out of the overloaded sewer system onto the street and damage the connected houses. The dependable simulation of water flow out of a manhole ("manhole") and over a curb ("curb") is crucial for the assessment of the flood risks. The incompressible 3D-Navier-Stokes Equations (3D-NSE) describe the free surface flow of water accurately, but require expensive computations. Therefore, the less CPU-intensive (factor ca.1/100) Shallow Water Equations (SWE) are usually applied in hydrology. They can be derived from 3D-NSE under the assumption of a hydrostatic pressure distribution via depth-integration and are applied successfully in particular to simulations of river flow processes. The SWE-computations of the flow problems "manhole" and "curb" differ to the 3D-NSE results. Thus, SWE need to be extended appropriately to give reliable forecasts for flood risks in urban areas within reduced computational efforts. These extensions are developed based on physical considerations not considered in the classical SWE. In one extension, a vortex layer on the ground is separated from the main flow representing its new bottom. In a further extension, the hydrostatic pressure distribution is corrected by additional terms due to approximations of vertical velocities and their interaction with the flow. These extensions increase the quality of the SWE results for these flow problems up to the quality level of the NSE results within a moderate increase of the CPU efforts.
The thesis discusses discrete-time dynamic flows over a finite time horizon T. These flows take time, called travel time, to pass an arc of the network. Travel times, as well as other network attributes, such as, costs, arc and node capacities, and supply at the source node, can be constant or time-dependent. Here we review results on discrete-time dynamic flow problems (DTDNFP) with constant attributes and develop new algorithms to solve several DTDNFPs with time-dependent attributes. Several dynamic network flow problems are discussed: maximum dynamic flow, earliest arrival flow, and quickest flow problems. We generalize the hybrid capacity scaling and shortest augmenting path algorithmic of the static network flow problem to consider the time dependency of the network attributes. The result is used to solve the maximum dynamic flow problem with time-dependent travel times and capacities. We also develop a new algorithm to solve earliest arrival flow problems with the same assumptions on the network attributes. The possibility to wait (or park) at a node before departing on outgoing arc is also taken into account. We prove that the complexity of new algorithm is reduced when infinite waiting is considered. We also report the computational analysis of this algorithm. The results are then used to solve quickest flow problems. Additionally, we discuss time-dependent bicriteria shortest path problems. Here we generalize the classical shortest path problems in two ways. We consider two - in general contradicting - objective functions and introduce a time dependency of the cost which is caused by a travel time on each arc. These problems have several interesting practical applications, but have not attained much attention in the literature. Here we develop two new algorithms in which one of them requires weaker assumptions as in previous research on the subject. Numerical tests show the superiority of the new algorithms. We then apply dynamic network flow models and their associated solution algorithms to determine lower bounds of the evacuation time, evacuation routes, and maximum capacities of inhabited areas with respect to safety requirements. As a macroscopic approach, our dynamic network flow models are mainly used to produce good lower bounds for the evacuation time and do not consider any individual behavior during the emergency situation. These bounds can be used to analyze existing buildings or help in the design phase of planning a building.
The main two problems of continuous-time financial mathematics are option pricing and portfolio optimization. In this thesis, various new aspects of these major topics of financial mathematics will be discussed. In all our considerations we will assume the standard diffusion type setting for securitiy prices which is today well-know under the term "Black-Scholes model". This setting and the basic results of option pricing and portfolio optimization are surveyed in the first chapter. The next three chapters deal with generalizations of the standard portfolio problem, also know as "Merton's problem". Here, we will always use the stochastic control approach as introduced in the seminal papers by Merton (1969, 1971, 1990). One such problem is the very realistic setting of an investor who is faced with fixed monetary streams. More precisely, in addition to maximizing the utility from final wealth via choosing an investment strategy, the investor also has to fulfill certain consumption needs. Also the opposite situation, an additional income stream can now be taken into account in our portfolio optimization problem. We consider various examples and solve them on one hand via classical stochastic control methods and on the other hand by our new separation theorem. This together with some numerical examples forms Chapter 2. Chapter 3 is mainly concerned with the portfolio problem if the investor has different lending and borrowing rates. We give explicit solutions (where possible) and numerical methods to calculate the optimal strategy in the cases of log utility and HARA utility for three different modelling approaches of the dependence of the borrowing rate on the fraction of wealth financed by a credit. The further generalization of the standard Merton problem in Chapter 4 consists in considering simultaneously the possibilities for continuous and discrete consumption. In our general approach there is a possibility for assigning the different consumption times different weights which is a generalization of the usual way of making them comparable via discounting. Chapter 5 deals with the special case of pricing basket options. Here, the main problem is not path-dependence but the multi-dimensionality which makes it impossible to give usuefull analytical representations of the option price. We review the literature and compare six different numerical methods in a systematic way. Thereby we also look at the influence of various parameters such as strike, correlation, forwards or volatilities on the erformance of the different numerical methods. The problem of pricing Asian options on average spot with average strike is the topic of Chapter 6. We here apply the bivariate normal distribution to obtain an approximate option price. This method proves to be very reliable and e±cient for the valuation of different variants of Asian options on average spot with average strike.
The focus of this work has been to develop two families of wavelet solvers for the inner displacement boundary-value problem of elastostatics. Our methods are particularly suitable for the deformation analysis corresponding to geoscientifically relevant (regular) boundaries like sphere, ellipsoid or the actual Earth's surface. The first method, a spatial approach to wavelets on a regular (boundary) surface, is established for the classical (inner) displacement problem. Starting from the limit and jump relations of elastostatics we formulate scaling functions and wavelets within the framework of the Cauchy-Navier equation. Based on numerical integration rules a tree algorithm is constructed for fast wavelet computation. This method can be viewed as a first attempt to "short-wavelength modelling", i.e. high resolution of the fine structure of displacement fields. The second technique aims at a suitable wavelet approximation associated to Green's integral representation for the displacement boundary-value problem of elastostatics. The starting points are tensor product kernels defined on Cauchy-Navier vector fields. We come to scaling functions and a spectral approach to wavelets for the boundary-value problems of elastostatics associated to spherical boundaries. Again a tree algorithm which uses a numerical integration rule on bandlimited functions is established to reduce the computational effort. For numerical realization for both methods, multiscale deformation analysis is investigated for the geoscientifically relevant case of a spherical boundary using test examples. Finally, the applicability of our wavelet concepts is shown by considering the deformation analysis of a particular region of the Earth, viz. Nevada, using surface displacements provided by satellite observations. This represents the first step towards practical applications.
Diese Arbeit gehört in die algebraische Geometrie und die Darstellungstheorie und stellt eine Beziehung zwischen beiden Gebieten dar. Man beschäftigt sich mit den abgeleiteten Kategorien auf flachen Entartungen projektiver Geraden und elliptischer Kurven. Als Mittel benutzt man die Technik der Matrixprobleme. Das Hauptergebnis dieser Dissertation ist der folgende Satz: SATZ. Sei X ein Zykel projektiver Geraden. Dann gibt es drei Typen unzerlegbarer Objekte in D^-(Coh_X): - Shifts von Wolkenkratzergarben in einem regulären Punkt; - Bänder B(w,m,lambda), - Saiten S(w). Ganz analog beweist man die Zahmheit der abgeleiteten Kategorien vieler assoziativer Algebren.
The central theme in this thesis concerns the development of enhanced methods and algorithms for appraising market and credit risks and their application within the context of standard and more advanced market models. Generally, methods and algorithms for analysing market risk of complex portfolios involve detailed knowledge of option sensitivities, the so-called "Greeks". Based on an analysis of symmetries in financial market models, relations between option sensitivities are obtained, which can be used for the efficient valuation of the Greeks. Mainly, the relations are derived within the Black Scholes model, however, some relations are also valid for more general models, for instance the Heston model. Portfolios are usually influenced by lots of underlyings, so it is necessary to characterise the dependencies of these basic instruments. It is usual to describe such dependencies by correlation matrices. However, estimations of correlation matrices in practice are disturbed by statistical noise and usually have the problem of rank deficiency due to missing data. A fast algorithm is presented which performs a generalized Cholesky decomposition of a perturbed correlation matrix. In contrast to the standard Cholesky algorithm, an advantage of the generalized method is that it works for semi-positive, rank deficient matrices as well. Moreover, it gives an approximative decomposition when the input matrix is indefinite. A comparison with known algorithms with similar features is performed and it turns out, that the new algorithm can be recommended in situations where computation time is the critical issue. The determination of a profit and loss distribution by Fourier inversion of its characteristic function is a powerful tool, but it can break down when the characteristic function is not integrable. In this thesis, methods for Fourier inversion of non-integrable characteristic functions are studied. In this respect, two theorems are obtained which are based on a suitable approximation of the unknown distribution with known density and characteristic function. Further it will be shown, that straightforward Fast Fourier inversion works, when the according density lives on a bounded interval. The above techniques are of crucial importance to determine the profit and loss distribution (P&L) of large portfolios efficiently. The so-called Delta Gamma normal approach has become industrial standard for the estimation of market risk. It is shown, that the performance of the Delta Gamma normal approach can be improved substantially by application of the developed methods. The same optimization procedure also applies to the Delta Gamma Student model. A standard tool for computing the P&L distribution of a loan portfolio is the CreditRisk+ model. Basically, the CreditRisk+ distribution is a discrete distribution which can be computed from its probability generating function. For this a numerically stable method is presented and as an alternative, a new algorithm based on Fourier inversion is proposed. Finally, an extension of the CreditRisk+ model to market risk is developed, which distribution can be obtained efficiently by the presented Fourier inversion methods as well.
The thesis deals with the subgradient optimization methods which are serving to solve nonsmooth optimization problems. We are particularly concerned with solving large-scale integer programming problems using the methodology of Lagrangian relaxation and dualization. The goal is to employ the subgradient optimization techniques to solve large-scale optimization problems that originated from radiation therapy planning problem. In the thesis, different kinds of zigzagging phenomena which hamper the speed of the subgradient procedures have been investigated and identified. Moreover, we have established a new procedure which can completely eliminate the zigzagging phenomena of subgradient methods. Procedures used to construct both primal and dual solutions within the subgradient schemes have been also described. We applied the subgradient optimization methods to solve the problem of minimizing total treatment time of radiation therapy. The problem is NP-hard and thus far there exists no method for solving the problem to optimality. We present a new, efficient, and fast algorithm which combines exact and heuristic procedures to solve the problem.
The thesis is concerned with the modelling of ionospheric current systems and induced magnetic fields in a multiscale framework. Scaling functions and wavelets are used to realize a multiscale analysis of the function spaces under consideration and to establish a multiscale regularization procedure for the inversion of the considered operator equation. First of all a general multiscale concept for vectorial operator equations between two separable Hilbert spaces is developed in terms of vector kernel functions. The equivalence to the canonical tensorial ansatz is proven and the theory is transferred to the case of multiscale regularization of vectorial inverse problems. As a first application, a special multiresolution analysis of the space of square-integrable vector fields on the sphere, e.g. the Earth’s magnetic field measured on a spherical satellite’s orbit, is presented. By this, a multiscale separation of spherical vector-valued functions with respect to their sources can be established. The vector field is split up into a part induced by sources inside the sphere, a part which is due to sources outside the sphere and a part which is generated by sources on the sphere, i.e. currents crossing the sphere. The multiscale technqiue is tested on a magnetic field data set of the satellite CHAMP and it is shown that crustal field determination can be improved by previously applying our method. In order to reconstruct ionspheric current systems from magnetic field data, an inversion of the Biot-Savart’s law in terms of multiscale regularization is defined. The corresponding operator is formulated and the singular values are calculated. Based on the konwledge of the singular system a regularzation technique in terms of certain product kernels and correponding convolutions can be formed. The method is tested on different simulations and on real magnetic field data of the satellite CHAMP and the proposed satellite mission SWARM.
We construct and study two surface measures on the space C([0,1],M) of paths in a compact Riemannian manifold M embedded into the Euclidean space R^n. The first one is induced by conditioning the usual Wiener measure on C([0,T],R^n) to the event that the Brownian particle does not leave the tubular epsilon-neighborhood of M up to time T, and passing to the limit. The second one is defined as the limit of the laws of reflected Brownian motions with reflection on the boundaries of the tubular epsilon-neighborhoods of M. We prove that the both surface measures exist and compare them with the Wiener measure W_M on C([0,T],M). We show that the first one is equivalent to W_M and compute the corresponding density explicitly in terms of the scalar curvature and the mean curvature vector of M. Further, we show that the second surface measure coincides with W_M. Finally, we study the limit behavior of the both surface measures as T tends to infinity.