## Fachbereich Mathematik

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- Fachbereich Mathematik (894)
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- Manifolds (2017)
- Lecture notes written to accompany a one semester course introducing to differential manifolds. Beyond the basic notions differential forms including Stokes' theorem are treated, as well as vector fields and flows on a differential manifold.

- Signature Standard Bases over Principal Ideal Rings (2016)
- By using Gröbner bases of ideals of polynomial algebras over a field, many implemented algorithms manage to give exciting examples and counter examples in Commutative Algebra and Algebraic Geometry. Part A of this thesis will focus on extending the concept of Gröbner bases and Standard bases for polynomial algebras over the ring of integers and its factors \(\mathbb{Z}_m[x]\). Moreover we implemented two algorithms for this case in Singular which use different approaches in detecting useless computations, the classical Buchberger algorithm and a F5 signature based algorithm. Part B includes two algorithms that compute the graded Hilbert depth of a graded module over a polynomial algebra \(R\) over a field, as well as the depth and the multigraded Stanley depth of a factor of monomial ideals of \(R\). The two algorithms provide faster computations and examples that lead B. Ichim and A. Zarojanu to a counter example of a question of J. Herzog. A. Duval, B. Goeckner, C. Klivans and J. Martin have recently discovered a counter example for the Stanley Conjecture. We prove in this thesis that the Stanley Conjecture holds in some special cases. Part D explores the General Neron Desingularization in the frame of Noetherian local domains of dimension 1. We have constructed and implemented in Singular and algorithm that computes a strong Artin Approximation for Cohen-Macaulay local rings of dimension 1.

- A predictive-control framework to eliminate bus bunching (2016)
- Buses not arriving on time and then arriving all at once - this phenomenon is known from busy bus routes and is called bus bunching. This thesis combines the well studied but so far separate areas of bus-bunching prediction and dynamic holding strategies, which allow to modulate buses’ dwell times at stops to eliminate bus bunching. We look at real data of the Dublin Bus route 46A and present a headway-based predictive-control framework considering all components like data acquisition, prediction and control strategies. We formulate time headways as time series and compare several prediction methods for those. Furthermore we present an analytical model of an artificial bus route and discuss stability properties and dynamic holding strategies using both data available at the time and predicted headway data. In a numerical simulation we illustrate the advantages of the presented predictive-control framework compared to the classical approaches which only use directly available data.

- New Aspects of Inflation Modeling (2016)
- Inflation modeling is a very important tool for conducting an efficient monetary policy. This doctoral thesis reviewed inflation models, in particular the Phillips curve models of inflation dynamics. We focused on a well known and widely used model, the so-called three equation new Keynesian model which is a system of equations consisting of a new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC), an investment and saving (IS) curve and an interest rate rule. We gave a detailed derivation of these equations. The interest rate rule used in this model is normally determined by using a Lagrangian method to solve an optimal control problem constrained by a standard discrete time NKPC which describes the inflation dynamics and an IS curve that represents the output gaps dynamics. In contrast to the real world, this method assumes that the policy makers intervene continuously. This means that the costs resulting from the change in the interest rates are ignored. We showed also that there are approximation errors made, when one log-linearizes non linear equations, by doing the derivation of the standard discrete time NKPC. We agreed with other researchers as mentioned in this thesis, that errors which result from ignoring such log-linear approximation errors and the costs of altering interest rates by determining interest rate rule, can lead to a suboptimal interest rate rule and hence to non-optimal paths of output gaps and inflation rate. To overcome such a problem, we proposed a stochastic optimal impulse control method. We formulated the problem as a stochastic optimal impulse control problem by considering the costs of change in interest rates and the approximation error terms. In order to formulate this problem, we first transform the standard discrete time NKPC and the IS curve into their high-frequency versions and hence into their continuous time versions where error terms are described by a zero mean Gaussian white noise with a finite and constant variance. After formulating this problem, we use the quasi-variational inequality approach to solve analytically a special case of the central bank problem, where an inflation rate is supposed to be on target and a central bank has to optimally control output gap dynamics. This method gives an optimal control band in which output gap process has to be maintained and an optimal control strategy, which includes the optimal size of intervention and optimal intervention time, that can be used to keep the process into the optimal control band. Finally, using a numerical example, we examined the impact of some model parameters on optimal control strategy. The results show that an increase in the output gap volatility as well as in the fixed and proportional costs of the change in interest rate lead to an increase in the width of the optimal control band. In this case, the optimal intervention requires the central bank to wait longer before undertaking another control action.

- Modeling Road Roughness with Conditional Random Fields (2016)
- A vehicles fatigue damage is a highly relevant figure in the complete vehicle design process. Long term observations and statistical experiments help to determine the influence of differnt parts of the vehicle, the driver and the surrounding environment. This work is focussing on modeling one of the most important influence factors of the environment: road roughness. The quality of the road is highly dependant on several surrounding factors which can be used to create mathematical models. Such models can be used for the extrapolation of information and an estimation of the environment for statistical studies. The target quantity we focus on in this work ist the discrete International Roughness Index or discrete IRI. The class of models we use and evaluate is a discriminative classification model called Conditional Random Field. We develop a suitable model specification and show new variants of stochastic optimizations to train the model efficiently. The model is also applied to simulated and real world data to show the strengths of our approach.

- Recursive Utility and Stochastic Differential Utility: From Discrete to Continuous Time (2016)
- In this thesis, mathematical research questions related to recursive utility and stochastic differential utility (SDU) are explored. First, a class of backward equations under nonlinear expectations is investigated: Existence and uniqueness of solutions are established, and the issues of stability and discrete-time approximation are addressed. It is then shown that backward equations of this class naturally appear as a continuous-time limit in the context of recursive utility with nonlinear expectations. Then, the Epstein-Zin parametrization of SDU is studied. The focus is on specifications with both relative risk aversion and elasitcity of intertemporal substitution greater that one. A concave utility functional is constructed and a utility gradient inequality is established. Finally, consumption-portfolio problems with recursive preferences and unspanned risk are investigated. The investor's optimal strategies are characterized by a specific semilinear partial differential equation. The solution of this equation is constructed by a fixed point argument, and a corresponding efficient and accurate method to calculate optimal strategies numerically is given.

- Interest Rate Modeling - The Potential Approach and Multi-Curve Potential Models (2016)
- This thesis is concerned with interest rate modeling by means of the potential approach. The contribution of this work is twofold. First, by making use of the potential approach and the theory of affine Markov processes, we develop a general class of rational models to the term structure of interest rates which we refer to as "the affine rational potential model". These models feature positive interest rates and analytical pricing formulae for zero-coupon bonds, caps, swaptions, and European currency options. We present some concrete models to illustrate the scope of the affine rational potential model and calibrate a model specification to real-world market data. Second, we develop a general family of "multi-curve potential models" for post-crisis interest rates. Our models feature positive stochastic basis spreads, positive term structures, and analytic pricing formulae for interest rate derivatives. This modeling framework is also flexible enough to accommodate negative interest rates and positive basis spreads.

- Advantage of Filtering for Portfolio Optimization in Financial Markets with Partial Information (2016)
- In a financial market we consider three types of investors trading with a finite time horizon with access to a bank account as well as multliple stocks: the fully informed investor, the partially informed investor whose only source of information are the stock prices and an investor who does not use this infor- mation. The drift is modeled either as following linear Gaussian dynamics or as being a continuous time Markov chain with finite state space. The optimization problem is to maximize expected utility of terminal wealth. The case of partial information is based on the use of filtering techniques. Conditions to ensure boundedness of the expected value of the filters are developed, in the Markov case also for positivity. For the Markov modulated drift, boundedness of the expected value of the filter relates strongly to port- folio optimization: effects are studied and quantified. The derivation of an equivalent, less dimensional market is presented next. It is a type of Mutual Fund Theorem that is shown here. Gains and losses eminating from the use of filtering are then discussed in detail for different market parameters: For infrequent trading we find that both filters need to comply with the boundedness conditions to be an advan- tage for the investor. Losses are minimal in case the filters are advantageous. At an increasing number of stocks, again boundedness conditions need to be met. Losses in this case depend strongly on the added stocks. The relation of boundedness and portfolio optimization in the Markov model leads here to increasing losses for the investor if the boundedness condition is to hold for all numbers of stocks. In the Markov case, the losses for different numbers of states are negligible in case more states are assumed then were originally present. Assuming less states leads to high losses. Again for the Markov model, a simplification of the complex optimal trading strategy for power utility in the partial information setting is shown to cause only minor losses. If the market parameters are such that shortselling and borrowing constraints are in effect, these constraints may lead to big losses depending on how much effect the constraints have. They can though also be an advantage for the investor in case the expected value of the filters does not meet the conditions for boundedness. All results are implemented and illustrated with the corresponding numerical findings.

- Global existence for a go-or-grow multiscale model for tumor invasion with therapy (2016)
- We investigate a PDE-ODE system describing cancer cell invasion in a tissue network. The model is an extension of the multiscale setting in [28,40], by considering two subpopulations of tumor cells interacting mutually and with the surrounding tissue. According to the go-or-grow hypothesis, these subpopulations consist of moving and proliferating cells, respectively. The mathematical setting also accommodates the effects of some therapy approaches. We prove the global existence of weak solutions to this model and perform numerical simulations to illustrate its behavior for different therapy strategies.

- Ranking Robustness and its Application to Evacuation Planning (2016)
- We present a new approach to handle uncertain combinatorial optimization problems that uses solution ranking procedures to determine the degree of robustness of a solution. Unlike classic concepts for robust optimization, our approach is not purely based on absolute quantitative performance, but also includes qualitative aspects that are of major importance for the decision maker. We discuss the two variants, solution ranking and objective ranking robustness, in more detail, presenting problem complexities and solution approaches. Using an uncertain shortest path problem as a computational example, the potential of our approach is demonstrated in the context of evacuation planning due to river flooding.