Fachbereich Mathematik
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- Doctoral Thesis (1) (remove)
In this thesis we integrate discrete dividends into the stock model, estimate
future outstanding dividend payments and solve different portfolio optimization
problems. Therefore, we discuss three well-known stock models, including
discrete dividend payments and evolve a model, which also takes early
announcement into account.
In order to estimate the future outstanding dividend payments, we develop a
general estimation framework. First, we investigate a model-free, no-arbitrage
methodology, which is based on the put-call parity for European options. Our
approach integrates all available option market data and simultaneously calculates
the market-implied discount curve. We illustrate our method using stocks
of European blue-chip companies and show within a statistical assessment that
the estimate performs well in practice.
As American options are more common, we additionally develop a methodology,
which is based on market prices of American at-the-money options.
This method relies on a linear combination of no-arbitrage bounds of the dividends,
where the corresponding optimal weight is determined via a historical
least squares estimation using realized dividends. We demonstrate our method
using all Dow Jones Industrial Average constituents and provide a robustness
check with respect to the used discount factor. Furthermore, we backtest our
results against the method using European options and against a so called
simple estimate.
In the last part of the thesis we solve the terminal wealth portfolio optimization
problem for a dividend paying stock. In the case of the logarithmic utility
function, we show that the optimal strategy is not a constant anymore but
connected to the Merton strategy. Additionally, we solve a special optimal
consumption problem, where the investor is only allowed to consume dividends.
We show that this problem can be reduced to the before solved terminal wealth
problem.