- Basic Conditions for the Implementation of Speed Adaptation Technologies in Germany (2004)
- Inappropriate speed is the most common reason for road traffic accidents world wide. Thus, a necessity for speed management exists. The so-called SUNflower states Sweden, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands - each spending strong effort in traffic safety policies - have great success in reducing mean road speeds and speed variances through speed management. However, the effect is still insufficient for gaining real traffic safety. Thus, there is a discussion to make use of technical in-vehicle devices. One of these technologies called Intelligent Speed Adaptation (ISA) reduces vehicle speeds. This is done either by warning the driver that he is speeding, or activating the accelerator pedal with a counterforce, or reducing the gasoline supply to the motor. The three ways of reducing the speed are called version 1-3. The EC-project for research on speed adaptation policies on European roads (PROSPER) deals with strategic proposals for the implementation of the different ISA-versions. This thesis includes selected results of PROSPER. In this thesis two empiric surveys were done in order to give an overview about the basic conditions (e.g. social, economic, technical aspects) for an ISA implementation in Germany. On one hand, a stakeholder analysis and questionnaire using the Delphi-method has been accomplished in two rounds. On the other hand, a questionnaire with speed offenders has been accomplished, too, in two rounds. In addition, the author created an expert pool consisting of 23 experts representing the most important fields of science and practice in which ISA is involved. The author made phone or personal interviews with most of the experts. 12 experts also produced a detailed publication on their professional point of view towards ISA. The two surveys and the professional comments on ISA led to four possible implementation scenarios for ISA in Germany. However, due to a strong political opposition against ISA it is also thinkable that ISA is not implemented or the implementation process starts after 2015 (i.e. outside the aimed period of time). The scenarios are as follows: A) Implementation of version 1 by market forces with governmental subventions. B) Implementation of version 2 by market forces supported by traffic safety institutions and image-making processes. C) Implementation of a modified version 3 by law for speed offenders instead of cancellation of the driving licence. D) Implementation of various versions in Germany because of a broad implementation of ISA in the SUNflower states. X) Non-implementation of ISA leads to the necessity of alternative speed management measures. The author prefers scenario B because - ceteris paribus - it seems to be the most likely way to implement the technology. As soon as ISA reaches technical maturity, the implementation process has to be accomplished in three steps. 1) Marketing and image making 2) Margin introduction 3) Market penetration This implementation process for ISA by market forces could effect a percentage of at least 15% of all vehicles equipped with ISA before the year 2015.