In this paper we deal with dierent statistical modeling of real world accident data in order to quantify the eectiveness of a safety function or a safety conguration (meaning a specic combination of safety functions) in vehicles. It is shown that the eectiveness can be estimated along the so-called relative risk, even if the eectiveness does depend on a confounding variable which may be categorical or continuous. For doing so a concrete statistical modeling is not necessary, that is the resulting estimate is of nonparametric nature. In a second step the quite usual and from a statistical point of view classical logistic regression modeling is investigated. Main emphasis has been laid on the understanding of the model and the interpretation of the occurring parameters. It is shown that the eectiveness of the safety function also can be detected via such a logistic approach and that relevant confounding variables can and should be taken into account. The interpretation of the parameters related to the confounder and the quantication of the in uence of the confounder is shown to be rather problematic. All the theoretical results are illuminated by numerical data examples.
This report describes the calibration and completion of the volatility cube in the SABR model. The description is based on a project done for Assenagon GmbH in Munich. However, we use fictitious market data which resembles realistic market data. The problem posed by our client is formulated in section 1. Here we also motivate why this is a relevant problem. The SABR model is briefly reviewed in section 2. Section 3 discusses the calibration and completion of the volatility cube. An example is presented in section 4. We conclude by suggesting possible future research in section 5.
In this article, a new model predictive control approach to nonlinear stochastic systems will be presented. The new approach is based on particle filters, which are usually used for estimating states or parameters. Here, two particle filters will be combined, the first one giving an estimate for the actual state based on the actual output of the system; the second one gives an estimate of a control input for the system. This is basically done by adopting the basic model predictive control strategies for the second particle filter. Later in this paper, this new approach is applied to a CSTR (continuous stirred-tank reactor) example and to the inverted pendulum.
Das Smart Grid, „intelligentes Stromnetz“, ist eines der Themen, welche von der Politik und natürlich auch der Stromwirtschaft immer wieder in den Vordergrund gestellt werden. Das Potential der erneuerbaren Energien reicht aus, um Deutschland und Europa zuverlässig mit Strom zu versorgen. Der Umbau der Stromnetze ist dabei von zentraler Bedeutung und bedarf einer Anstrengung der gesamten Gesellschaft. Leider kommt dabei der Stromkunde zu kurz — die Bedürfnisse von Stromkunden werden weitgehend ignoriert und der Datenschutz wird oft ausser acht gelassen. Aber auch kleinere Stadtwerke haben mit dieser Entwicklung Probleme: Aufgrund politischer Vorgaben müssen sie zum Beispiel Smart Meter einführen, obwohl ihnen dadurch Kosten entstehen, die sie nicht direkt auf den Kunden umlegen können. Die Bereitschaft der Kunden, für ein Smart Grid mehr Geld zu bezahlen, ist wohl kaum vorhanden. Gleichzeitig ist es aber notwendig, die bestehenden Stromnetze zu flexibilisieren und auf einen weiter steigenden Anteil von erneuerbaren Energiequellen vorzubereiten
The modelling of hedge funds poses a difficult problem since the available reported data sets are often small and incomplete. We propose a switching regression model for hedge funds, in which the coefficients are able to switch between different regimes. The coefficients are governed by a Markov chain in discrete time. The different states of the Markov chain represent different states of the economy, which influence the performance of the independent variables. Hedge fund indices are chosen as regressors. The parameter estimation for the switching parameter as well as for the switching error term is done through a filtering technique for hidden Markov models developed by Elliott (1994). Recursive parameter estimates are calculated through a filter-based EM-algorithm, which uses the hidden information of the underlying Markov chain. Our switching regression model is applied on hedge fund series and hedge fund indices from the HFR database.
In this paper a three dimensional stochastic model for the lay-down of fibers on a moving conveyor belt in the production process of nonwoven materials is derived. The model is based on stochastic diferential equations describing the resulting position of the fiber on the belt under the influence of turbulent air ows. The model presented here is an extension of an existing surrogate model, see [6, 3].
The optimal design of rotational production processes for glass wool manufacturing poses severe computational challenges to mathematicians, natural scientists and engineers. In this paper we focus exclusively on the spinning regime where thousands of viscous thermal glass jets are formed by fast air streams. Homogeneity and slenderness of the spun fibers are the quality features of the final fabric. Their prediction requires the computation of the fuidber-interactions which involves the solving of a complex three-dimensional multiphase problem with appropriate interface conditions. But this is practically impossible due to the needed high resolution and adaptive grid refinement. Therefore, we propose an asymptotic coupling concept. Treating the glass jets as viscous thermal Cosserat rods, we tackle the multiscale problem by help of momentum (drag) and heat exchange models that are derived on basis of slender-body theory and homogenization. A weak iterative coupling algorithm that is based on the combination of commercial software and self-implemented code for ow and rod solvers, respectively, makes then the simulation of the industrial process possible. For the boundary value problem of the rod we particularly suggest an adapted collocation-continuation method. Consequently, this work establishes a promising basis for future optimization strategies.
The scope of this paper is to enhance the model for the own-company stockholder (given in Desmettre, Gould and Szimayer (2010)), who can voluntarily performance-link his personal wealth to his management success by acquiring stocks in the own-company whose value he can directly influence via spending work effort. The executive is thereby characterized by a parameter of risk aversion and the two work effectiveness parameters inverse work productivity and disutility stress. We extend the model to a constant absolute risk aversion framework using an exponential utility/disutility set-up. A closed-form solution is given for the optimal work effort an executive will apply and we derive the optimal investment strategies of the executive. Furthermore, we determine an up-front fair cash compensation applying an indifference utility rationale. Our study shows to a large extent that the results previously obtained are robust under the choice of the utility/disutility set-up.
We will present a rigorous derivation of the equations and interface conditions for ion, charge and heat transport in Li-ion insertion batteries. The derivation is based exclusively on universally accepted principles of nonequilibrium thermodynamics and the assumption of a one step intercalation reaction at the interface of electrolyte and active particles. Without loss of generality the transport in the active particle is assumed to be isotropic. The electrolyte is described as a fully dissociated salt in a neutral solvent. The presented theory is valid for transport on a spatial scale for which local charge neutrality holds i.e. beyond the scale of the diffuse double layer. Charge neutrality is explicitely used to determine the correct set of thermodynamically independent variables. The theory guarantees strictly positive entropy production. The various contributions to the Peltier coeficients for the interface between the active particles and the electrolyte as well as the contributions to the heat of mixing are obtained as a result of the theory.
Input signals are needed for the numerical simulation of vehicle multibody systems. With these input data, the equations of motion can be integrated numerically and some output quantities can be calculated from the simulation results. In this work we consider the corresponding inverse problem: We assume that some reference output signals are available, typically gained by measurement and focus on the task to derive the input signals that produce the desired reference output in a suitable sense. If the input data is invariant, i.e., independent of the specific system, it can be transferred and used to excite other system variants. This problem can be formulated as optimal control problem. We discuss solution approaches from optimal control theory, their applicability to this special problem class and give some simulation results.