The scope of this diploma thesis is to examine the four generations of asset pricing models and the corresponding volatility dynamics which have been devepoled so far. We proceed as follows: In chapter 1 we give a short repetition of the Black-Scholes first generation model which assumes a constant volatility and we show that volatility should not be modeled as constant by examining statistical data and introducing the notion of implied volatility. In chapter 2, we examine the simplest models that are able to produce smiles or skews - local volatility models. These are called second generation models. Local volatility models model the volatility as a function of the stock price and time. We start with the work of Dupire, show how local volatility models can be calibrated and end with a detailed discussion of the constant elasticity of volatility model. Chapter 3 focuses on the Heston model which represents the class of the stochastic volatility models, which assume that the volatility itself is driven by a stochastic process. These are called third generation models. We introduce the model structure, derive a partial differential pricing equation, give a closed-form solution for European calls by solving this equation and explain how the model is calibrated. The last part of chapter 3 then deals with the limits and the mis-specifications of the Heston model, in particular for recent exotic options like reverse cliquets, Accumulators or Napoleons. In chapter 4 we then introduce the Bergomi forward variance model which is called fourth generation model as a consequence of the limits of the Heston model explained in chapter 3. The Bergomi model is a stochastic local volatility model - the spot price is modeled as a constant elasticity of volatility diffusion and its volatility parameters are functions of the so called forward variances which are specified as stochastic processes. We start with the model specification, derive a partial differential pricing equation, show how the model has to be calibrated and end with pricing examples and a concluding discussion.
This technical report contains the preliminary versions of the regular papers presented at the first workshop on Verification of Adaptive Systems (VerAS) that has been held in Kaiserslautern, Germany, on September 14th, 2007 as part of the 20th International Conference on Theorem Proving in Higher Order Logics. The final versions will be published with Elsevier's Electronic Notes on Theoretical Computer Science (ENTCS). VerAS is the first workshop that aims at considering adaptation as a cross-cutting system aspect that needs to be explicitly addressed in system design and verification. The program committee called for original submissions on formal modeling, specification, verification, and implementation of adaptive systems. There were six submissions from different countries of Europe. Each submission has been reviewed by three programme committee members. Finally, the programme committee decided to accept three of the six submissions. Besides the presentations of the regular papers, the workshop's programme included a tutorial on the `Compositional Verification of Self-Optimizing Mechatronic Systems' held by Holger Giese (University of Paderborn, Germany) as well as three presentations of DASMOD projects on the verification of adaptive systems.
This technical report is the Emerging Trends proceedings of the 20th International Conference on Theorem Proving in Higher Order Logics (TPHOLs 2007), which was held during 10-13 September in Kaiserslautern, Germany. TPHOLs covers all aspects of theorem proving in higher order logics as well as related topics in theorem proving and veriﬁcation.
In this thesis we classify simple coherent sheaves on Kodaira fibers of types II, III and IV (cuspidal and tacnode cubic curves and a plane configuration of three concurrent lines). Indecomposable vector bundles on smooth elliptic curves were classified in 1957 by Atiyah. In works of Burban, Drozd and Greuel it was shown that the categories of vector bundles and coherent sheaves on cycles of projective lines are tame. It turns out, that all other degenerations of elliptic curves are vector-bundle-wild. Nevertheless, we prove that the category of coherent sheaves of an arbitrary reduced plane cubic curve, (including the mentioned Kodaira fibers) is brick-tame. The main technical tool of our approach is the representation theory of bocses. Although, this technique was mainly used for purely theoretical purposes, we illustrate its computational potential for investigating tame behavior in wild categories. In particular, it allows to prove that a simple vector bundle on a reduced cubic curve is determined by its rank, multidegree and determinant, generalizing Atiyah's classification. Our approach leads to an interesting class of bocses, which can be wild but are brick-tame.
In urban planning, sophisticated simulation models are key tools to estimate future population growth for measuring the impact of planning decisions on urban developments and the environment. Simulated population projections usually result in large, macro-scale, multivariate geospatial data sets. Millions of records have to be processed, stored, and visualized to help planners explore and analyze complex population patterns. We introduce a database driven framework for visualizing geospatial multidimensional simulation data based on the output from UrbanSim, a software for the analysis and planning of urban developments. The designed framework is extendable and aims at integrating empirical-stochastic methods and urban simulation models with techniques developed for information visualization and cartography. First, we develop an empirical model for the estimation of residential building types based on demographic household characteristics. The predicted dwelling type information is important for the analysis of future material use, carbon footprint calculations, and for visualizing simultaneously the results of land usage, density, and other significant parameters in 3D space. Our model uses multinomial logistic regression to derive building types at different scales. The estimated regression coefficients are applied to UrbanSim output in order to predict residential building types. The simulation results and the estimated building types are managed in an object-relational geodatabase. From the database, density, building types, and significant demographic variables are visually encoded as scalable, georeferenced 3D geometries and displayed on top of aerial photographs in a Google Earth visual synthesis. The geodatabase can be accessed and the visualization parameters can be chosen through a web-based user interface. The geometries are encoded in KML, Google's markup language, as ready-to-visualize data sets. The goal is to enhance human cognition by displaying abstract representations of multidimensional data sets in a realistic context and thus to support decision making in planning processes.