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Maximum Likelihood Estimators for Markov Switching Autoregressive Processes with ARCH Component
(2009)

We consider a mixture of AR-ARCH models where the switching between the basic states of the observed time series is controlled by a hidden Markov chain. Under simple conditions, we prove consistency and asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood parameter estimates combining general results on asymptotics of Douc et al (2004) and of geometric ergodicity of Franke et al (2007).

We derive some asymptotics for a new approach to curve estimation proposed by Mr'{a}zek et al. cite{MWB06} which combines localization and regularization. This methodology has been considered as the basis of a unified framework covering various different smoothing methods in the analogous two-dimensional problem of image denoising. As a first step for understanding this approach theoretically, we restrict our discussion here to the least-squares distance where we have explicit formulas for the function estimates and where we can derive a rather complete asymptotic theory from known results for the Priestley-Chao curve estimate. In this paper, we consider only the case where the bias dominates the mean-square error. Other situations are dealt with in subsequent papers.

In this paper we consider a CHARME Model, a class of generalized mixture of nonlinear nonparametric AR-ARCH time series. We apply the theory of Markov models to derive asymptotic stability of this model. Indeed, the goal is to provide some sets of conditions under which our model is geometric ergodic and therefore satisfies some mixing conditions. This result can be considered as the basis toward an asymptotic theory for our model.

We consider data generating mechanisms which can be represented as mixtures of finitely many regression or autoregression models. We propose nonparametric estimators for the functions characterizing the various mixture components based on a local quasi maximum likelihood approach and prove their consistency. We present an EM algorithm for calculating the estimates numerically which is mainly based on iteratively applying common local smoothers and discuss its convergence properties.

We consider the problem of estimating the conditional quantile of a time series at time \(t\) given observations of the same and perhaps other time series available at time \(t-1\). We discuss sieve estimates which are a nonparametric versions of the Koenker-Bassett regression quantiles and do not require the specification of the innovation law. We prove consistency of those estimates and illustrate their good performance for light- and heavy-tailed distributions of the innovations with a small simulation study. As an economic application, we use the estimates for calculating the value at risk of some stock price series.

Knowledge about the distribution of a statistical estimator is important for various purposes like, for example, the construction of confidence intervals for model parameters or the determiation of critical values of tests. A widely used method to estimate this distribution is the so-called bootstrap which is based on an imitation of the probabilistic structure of the data generating process on the basis of the information provided by a given set of random observations. In this paper we investigate this classical method in the context of artificial neural networks used for estimating a mapping from input to output space. We establish consistency results for bootstrap estimates of the distribution of parameter estimates.