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#### Year of publication

- 2007 (2) (remove)

#### Keywords

- conditional quantile (1)
- image denoising (1)
- localization (1)
- neural network (1)
- penalization (1)
- qualitative threshold model (1)
- regularization (1)
- sieve estimate (1)
- smoothing (1)
- time series (1)

We derive some asymptotics for a new approach to curve estimation proposed by Mr'{a}zek et al. cite{MWB06} which combines localization and regularization. This methodology has been considered as the basis of a unified framework covering various different smoothing methods in the analogous two-dimensional problem of image denoising. As a first step for understanding this approach theoretically, we restrict our discussion here to the least-squares distance where we have explicit formulas for the function estimates and where we can derive a rather complete asymptotic theory from known results for the Priestley-Chao curve estimate. In this paper, we consider only the case where the bias dominates the mean-square error. Other situations are dealt with in subsequent papers.

We consider the problem of estimating the conditional quantile of a time series at time \(t\) given observations of the same and perhaps other time series available at time \(t-1\). We discuss sieve estimates which are a nonparametric versions of the Koenker-Bassett regression quantiles and do not require the specification of the innovation law. We prove consistency of those estimates and illustrate their good performance for light- and heavy-tailed distributions of the innovations with a small simulation study. As an economic application, we use the estimates for calculating the value at risk of some stock price series.