### Refine

#### Year of publication

- 2017 (12) (remove)

#### Document Type

- Doctoral Thesis (12) (remove)

#### Language

- English (12) (remove)

#### Keywords

- Ableitungsfreie Optimierung (1)
- Beschränkte Krümmung (1)
- Bildsegmentierung (1)
- Censoring (1)
- Change Point Analysis (1)
- Change Point Test (1)
- Change-point Analysis (1)
- Change-point estimator (1)
- Change-point test (1)
- Effizienter Algorithmus (1)

#### Faculty / Organisational entity

- Fachbereich Mathematik (12) (remove)

In this thesis we explicitly solve several portfolio optimization problems in a very realistic setting. The fundamental assumptions on the market setting are motivated by practical experience and the resulting optimal strategies are challenged in numerical simulations.
We consider an investor who wants to maximize expected utility of terminal wealth by trading in a high-dimensional financial market with one riskless asset and several stocks.
The stock returns are driven by a Brownian motion and their drift is modelled by a Gaussian random variable. We consider a partial information setting, where the drift is unknown to the investor and has to be estimated from the observable stock prices in addition to some analyst’s opinion as proposed in [CLMZ06]. The best estimate given these observations is the well known Kalman-Bucy-Filter. We then consider an innovations process to transform the partial information setting into a market with complete information and an observable Gaussian drift process.
The investor is restricted to portfolio strategies satisfying several convex constraints.
These constraints can be due to legal restrictions, due to fund design or due to client's specifications. We cover in particular no-short-selling and no-borrowing constraints.
One popular approach to constrained portfolio optimization is the convex duality approach of Cvitanic and Karatzas. In [CK92] they introduce auxiliary stock markets with shifted market parameters and obtain a dual problem to the original portfolio optimization problem that can be better solvable than the primal problem.
Hence we consider this duality approach and using stochastic control methods we first solve the dual problems in the cases of logarithmic and power utility.
Here we apply a reverse separation approach in order to obtain areas where the corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman differential equation can be solved. It turns out that these areas have a straightforward interpretation in terms of the resulting portfolio strategy. The areas differ between active and passive stocks, where active stocks are invested in, while passive stocks are not.
Afterwards we solve the auxiliary market given the optimal dual processes in a more general setting, allowing for various market settings and various dual processes.
We obtain explicit analytical formulas for the optimal portfolio policies and provide an algorithm that determines the correct formula for the optimal strategy in any case.
We also show optimality of our resulting portfolio strategies in different verification theorems.
Subsequently we challenge our theoretical results in a historical and an artificial simulation that are even closer to the real world market than the setting we used to derive our theoretical results. However, we still obtain compelling results indicating that our optimal strategies can outperform any benchmark in a real market in general.

In change-point analysis the point of interest is to decide if the observations follow one model
or if there is at least one time-point, where the model has changed. This results in two sub-
fields, the testing of a change and the estimation of the time of change. This thesis considers
both parts but with the restriction of testing and estimating for at most one change-point.
A well known example is based on independent observations having one change in the mean.
Based on the likelihood ratio test a test statistic with an asymptotic Gumbel distribution was
derived for this model. As it is a well-known fact that the corresponding convergence rate is
very slow, modifications of the test using a weight function were considered. Those tests have
a better performance. We focus on this class of test statistics.
The first part gives a detailed introduction to the techniques for analysing test statistics and
estimators. Therefore we consider the multivariate mean change model and focus on the effects
of the weight function. In the case of change-point estimators we can distinguish between
the assumption of a fixed size of change (fixed alternative) and the assumption that the size
of the change is converging to 0 (local alternative). Especially, the fixed case in rarely analysed
in the literature. We show how to come from the proof for the fixed alternative to the
proof of the local alternative. Finally, we give a simulation study for heavy tailed multivariate
observations.
The main part of this thesis focuses on two points. First, analysing test statistics and, secondly,
analysing the corresponding change-point estimators. In both cases, we first consider a
change in the mean for independent observations but relaxing the moment condition. Based on
a robust estimator for the mean, we derive a new type of change-point test having a randomized
weight function. Secondly, we analyse non-linear autoregressive models with unknown
regression function. Based on neural networks, test statistics and estimators are derived for
correctly specified as well as for misspecified situations. This part extends the literature as
we analyse test statistics and estimators not only based on the sample residuals. In both
sections, the section on tests and the one on the change-point estimator, we end with giving
regularity conditions on the model as well as the parameter estimator.
Finally, a simulation study for the case of the neural network based test and estimator is
given. We discuss the behaviour under correct and mis-specification and apply the neural
network based test and estimator on two data sets.