37-XX DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS AND ERGODIC THEORY [See also 26A18, 28Dxx, 34Cxx, 34Dxx, 35Bxx, 46Lxx, 58Jxx, 70-XX]
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Mechanistic disease spread models for different vector borne diseases have been studied from the 19th century. The relevance of mathematical modeling and numerical simulation of disease spread is increasing nowadays. This thesis focuses on the compartmental models of the vector-borne diseases that are also transmitted directly among humans. An example of such an arboviral disease that falls under this category is the Zika Virus disease. The study begins with a compartmental SIRUV model and its mathematical analysis. The non-trivial relationship between the basic reproduction number obtained through two methods have been discussed. The analytical results that are mathematically proven for this model are numerically verified. Another SIRUV model is presented by considering a different formulation of the model parameters and the newly obtained model is shown to be clearly incorporating the dependence on the ratio of mosquito population size to human population size in the disease spread. In order to incorporate the spatial as well as temporal dynamics of the disease spread, a meta-population model based on the SIRUV model was developed. The space domain under consideration are divided into patches which may denote mutually exclusive spatial entities like administrative areas, districts, provinces, cities, states or even countries. The research focused only on the short term movements or commuting behavior of humans across the patches. This is incorportated in the multi-patch meta-population model using a matrix of residence time fractions of humans in each patches. Mathematically simplified analytical results are deduced by which it is shown that, for an exemplary scenario that is numerically studied, the multi-patch model also admits the threshold properties that the single patch SIRUV model holds. The relevance of commuting behavior of humans in the disease spread has been presented using the numerical results from this model. The local and non-local commuting are incorporated into the meta-population model in a numerical example. Later, a PDE model is developed from the multi-patch model.
In this paper we consider a multivariate switching model, with constant states means
and covariances. In this model, the switching mechanism between the basic states of
the observed time series is controlled by a hidden Markov chain. As illustration, under
Gaussian assumption on the innovations and some rather simple conditions, we prove
the consistency and asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters.
The primary objective of this work is the development of robust, accurate and efficient simulation methods for the optimal control of mechanical systems, in particular of constrained mechanical systems as they appear in the context of multibody dynamics. The focus is on the development of new numerical methods that meet the demand of structure preservation, i.e. the approximate numerical solution inherits certain characteristic properties from the real dynamical process.
This task includes three main challenges. First of all, a kinematic description of multibody systems is required that treats rigid bodies and spatially discretised elastic structures in a uniform way and takes their interconnection by joints into account. This kinematic description must not be subject to singularities when the system performs large nonlinear dynamics. Here, a holonomically constrained formulation that completely circumvents the use of rotational parameters has proved to perform very well. The arising constrained equations of motion are suitable for an easy temporal discretisation in a structure preserving way. In the temporal discrete setting, the equations can be reduced to minimal dimension by elimination of the constraint forces. Structure preserving integration is the second important ingredient. Computational methods that are designed to inherit system specific characteristics – like consistency in energy, momentum maps or symplecticity – often show superior numerical performance regarding stability and accuracy compared to standard methods. In addition to that, they provide a more meaningful picture of the behaviour of the systems they approximate. The third step is to take the previ- ously addressed points into the context of optimal control, where differential equation and inequality constrained optimisation problems with boundary values arise. To obtain meaningful results from optimal control simulations, wherein energy expenditure or the control effort of a motion are often part of the optimisation goal, it is crucial to approxi- mate the underlying dynamics in a structure preserving way, i.e. in a way that does not numerically, thus artificially, dissipate energy and in which momentum maps change only and exactly according to the applied loads.
The excellent numerical performance of the newly developed simulation method for optimal control problems is demonstrated by various examples dealing with robotic systems and a biomotion problem. Furthermore, the method is extended to uncertain systems where the goal is to minimise a probability of failure upper bound and to problems with contacts arising for example in bipedal walking.