Refine
Year of publication
- 2018 (1)
Document Type
- Doctoral Thesis (1) (remove)
Language
- English (1) (remove)
Has Fulltext
- yes (1)
Faculty / Organisational entity
In this thesis we integrate discrete dividends into the stock model, estimate
future outstanding dividend payments and solve different portfolio optimization
problems. Therefore, we discuss three well-known stock models, including
discrete dividend payments and evolve a model, which also takes early
announcement into account.
In order to estimate the future outstanding dividend payments, we develop a
general estimation framework. First, we investigate a model-free, no-arbitrage
methodology, which is based on the put-call parity for European options. Our
approach integrates all available option market data and simultaneously calculates
the market-implied discount curve. We illustrate our method using stocks
of European blue-chip companies and show within a statistical assessment that
the estimate performs well in practice.
As American options are more common, we additionally develop a methodology,
which is based on market prices of American at-the-money options.
This method relies on a linear combination of no-arbitrage bounds of the dividends,
where the corresponding optimal weight is determined via a historical
least squares estimation using realized dividends. We demonstrate our method
using all Dow Jones Industrial Average constituents and provide a robustness
check with respect to the used discount factor. Furthermore, we backtest our
results against the method using European options and against a so called
simple estimate.
In the last part of the thesis we solve the terminal wealth portfolio optimization
problem for a dividend paying stock. In the case of the logarithmic utility
function, we show that the optimal strategy is not a constant anymore but
connected to the Merton strategy. Additionally, we solve a special optimal
consumption problem, where the investor is only allowed to consume dividends.
We show that this problem can be reduced to the before solved terminal wealth
problem.