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A predictive-control framework to eliminate bus bunching

  • Buses not arriving on time and then arriving all at once - this phenomenon is known from busy bus routes and is called bus bunching. This thesis combines the well studied but so far separate areas of bus-bunching prediction and dynamic holding strategies, which allow to modulate buses’ dwell times at stops to eliminate bus bunching. We look at real data of the Dublin Bus route 46A and present a headway-based predictive-control framework considering all components like data acquisition, prediction and control strategies. We formulate time headways as time series and compare several prediction methods for those. Furthermore we present an analytical model of an artificial bus route and discuss stability properties and dynamic holding strategies using both data available at the time and predicted headway data. In a numerical simulation we illustrate the advantages of the presented predictive-control framework compared to the classical approaches which only use directly available data.

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Author:Matthias Andres
URN (permanent link):urn:nbn:de:hbz:386-kluedo-45004
Advisor:René Pinnau
Document Type:Master's Thesis
Language of publication:English
Publication Date:2016/11/24
Year of Publication:2016
Publishing Institute:Technische Universität Kaiserslautern
Granting Institute:Technische Universität Kaiserslautern
Date of the Publication (Server):2016/11/25
Tag:bus bunching; dynamic holding; headway prediction; predictive control; transit operations
Number of page:120
Faculties / Organisational entities:Fachbereich Mathematik
DDC-Cassification:5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 510 Mathematik
MSC-Classification (mathematics):65-XX NUMERICAL ANALYSIS / 65Cxx Probabilistic methods, simulation and stochastic differential equations (For theoretical aspects, see 68U20 and 60H35) / 65C20 Models, numerical methods [See also 68U20]
91-XX GAME THEORY, ECONOMICS, SOCIAL AND BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES / 91Bxx Mathematical economics (For econometrics, see 62P20) / 91B74 Models of real-world systems
Licence (German):Standard gemäß KLUEDO-Leitlinien vom 30.07.2015