Quantification of the effectiveness of a safety function in passenger vehicles on the basis of real-world accident data

  • In this paper we deal with dierent statistical modeling of real world accident data in order to quantify the eectiveness of a safety function or a safety conguration (meaning a specic combination of safety functions) in vehicles. It is shown that the eectiveness can be estimated along the so-called relative risk, even if the eectiveness does depend on a confounding variable which may be categorical or continuous. For doing so a concrete statistical modeling is not necessary, that is the resulting estimate is of nonparametric nature. In a second step the quite usual and from a statistical point of view classical logistic regression modeling is investigated. Main emphasis has been laid on the understanding of the model and the interpretation of the occurring parameters. It is shown that the eectiveness of the safety function also can be detected via such a logistic approach and that relevant confounding variables can and should be taken into account. The interpretation of the parameters related to the confounder and the quantication of the in uence of the confounder is shown to be rather problematic. All the theoretical results are illuminated by numerical data examples.

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Verfasserangaben:J.-P. Kreiss, T. Zangmeister
URN (Permalink):urn:nbn:de:hbz:386-kluedo-16944
Schriftenreihe (Bandnummer):Berichte des Fraunhofer-Instituts für Techno- und Wirtschaftsmathematik (ITWM Report) (203)
Sprache der Veröffentlichung:Englisch
Jahr der Fertigstellung:2011
Jahr der Veröffentlichung:2011
Veröffentlichende Institution:Fraunhofer-Institut für Techno- und Wirtschaftsmathematik
Datum der Publikation (Server):26.04.2011
GND-Schlagwort:logistic regression ; real-world accident data ; safety function ; statistical modeling
Fachbereiche / Organisatorische Einheiten:Fraunhofer (ITWM)
DDC-Sachgruppen:5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 51 Mathematik / 510 Mathematik
Lizenz (Deutsch):Standard gemäß KLUEDO-Leitlinien vor dem 27.05.2011

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